So there are some shifts under way, and they may turn out to be important in the longer term. But for now the North’s answer remains unchanged: no.
While hardline unionist opposition has softened somewhat since last year, with a notable decline in the numbers of Protestant-background voters who say they would find it “almost impossible to accept” a vote for unity, no British secretary of state for Northern Ireland could see the results of today’s survey and conclude that a referendum was likely to succeed. And that, under the Belfast Agreement, is the standard required before the British government calls a Border poll.
But pro-unity campaigners can reasonably claim that the tide is moving, however slowly, in their direction.
Northern Catholics are more in favour of holding a referendum on unity, a consequence, one might venture, of the increasing and probably irrevocable prominence of the united Ireland debate. About six in 10 of all Northern voters want to see a referendum within 10 years.
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There has been a noticeable increase in the numbers of Southern voters who perceive the united Ireland question as one of the most important issues for the country over the next 10 years
In the South, the numbers in favour of a united Ireland remain overwhelming; two thirds are in favour, with a slight, within-margin-of-error decline since last year and just 16 per cent against.
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In addition, there has been a noticeable increase in the numbers of Southern voters who perceive the united Ireland question as one of the most important issues for the country over the next 10 years.
Last year, just 15 per cent of people said “achieving a united Ireland” was one of the most important issues; this year, that has jumped to 22 per cent.
Last year, just 12 per cent of people said “preparing for a referendum on a united Ireland” was one of the most important issues; this year, it’s 20 per cent.
Those are substantial shifts in a short time and underline just how much the united Ireland issue is moving to the centre of politics.
Should Sinn Féin – as many anticipate, not least the party’s supporters – end up in power in Dublin after the next election, that shift will be reflected at the very heart of Government.
There is a core group of hardline unionists who are hugely hostile to the very idea of unity. But this year’s numbers suggest that this group is declining
And yet, the tasks ahead of united Irelanders in the North remain formidable. Over a fifth of Catholics in the North say they would vote to remain in the United Kingdom; among the “others” – those who describe themselves as neither Catholic nor Protestant – voters are nearly twice as likely to vote to remain in the UK as they are to vote for Irish unity. If the “persuadables” are to be located in these demographics, then there is clearly some persuading to be done.
At the same time, there is also another, parallel task: reassuring unionists that their interests, identity and loyalties will be recognised and protected in a new, united Ireland. There is a core group of hardline unionists who are hugely hostile to the very idea of unity. But this year’s numbers suggest that this group is declining.
That is good news for those concerned not just with achieving a united Ireland, but making sure that it would be a success. The examination of possible different constitutional arrangements, to be reported in the coming days in this series, will be of particular interest to them.
Of course, practical questions will matter more to many voters than constitutional niceties. They will want to know what a united Ireland means for their own economic circumstances. Those questions will be addressed in future days, but it would be hard to understate the importance of economics on both sides of the Border.
If nationalism, as many believe, is on the road to a demographically inevitable united Ireland, today’s poll numbers confirm that the road – whatever its ultimate destination turns out to be – will be indeed a long one. The numbers also show, however, that the journey has begun.
