Voters in the Republic are strongly opposed to membership of both Nato and the Commonwealth for a new united Ireland if that were to happen, putting them at odds with voters in Northern Ireland.
People in Northern Ireland favour Nato membership over a united Ireland and are divided on Commonwealth membership, but the latest polls in both jurisdictions show a stark divide with voters in the Republic overwhelmingly hostile to both organisations, despite their importance to unionists.
Voters in the South, as well as voters from a Catholic background in Northern Ireland, are more strongly opposed to Commonwealth membership than they are to Nato membership.
Those from a Protestant background in Northern Ireland are strongly in favour of membership of both the Commonwealth and Nato.
Northern Catholics are against membership of both but are less negative about the prospect, especially when it comes to Nato membership, than voters in the South.
The findings are part of the North and South research project for which two simultaneous opinion polls have been conducted each year for the past three years.
Each poll was conducted by Ipsos – Ipsos Northern Ireland in the North and Ipsos B&A in the South – which surveyed more than 1,000 voters at multiple points across both jurisdictions.
In addition this year, two deliberative forums have been held, one in each jurisdiction, in order to allow selected participants to discuss the constitutional issue and related questions in a structured setting. The surveys and deliberative forums took place in the second half of 2024.
Asked about potential Nato membership for a new united Ireland, almost half of all voters (49 per cent) in the Republic are opposed, with 19 per cent in favour and 22 per cent not sure.
Opposition to the Commonwealth among southern voters is even more pronounced with 67 per cent opposed and just 11 per cent in favour.
Among Protestant voters in the North, the position is reversed. Over half of all respondents (55 per cent) say that a united Ireland should join Nato, while 52 per cent say it should join the Commonwealth.
The findings of today’s poll bear out attitudes in the Republic that were evident in the equivalent polls in the last two years: that there is a reluctance among many southern voters to make any changes to their state in order to accommodate unionists.
Previous research findings suggested that many southern voters are reluctant to make changes to flags, symbols and emblems, or to make financial sacrifices, or constitutional changes, to accommodate unionists in a new united Ireland in the event that referendums on both sides of the border were passed.
There were also indications that some voters might be prepared to discuss some possible changes, though many southern voters seem to be of the view that unionists – in the event that referendums are passed – will simply join the existing Republic.
[ So the North still says no. But for how much longer?Opens in new window ]
The North and South project is a collaboration between The Irish Times and ARINS (Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South), a joint project of the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame in the United States.
The ARINS/Irish Times project aims to provide independent and unbiased information on the state of public opinion in both jurisdictions on the constitutional future of the island, on what influences the views of people, how they might change in the future and what a united Ireland – if it were ever to happen – might look like.
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