Trump tariffs mean volatility and threat of further escalation are the new normal

The Government knows it is in the teeth, already, of the first big thing that will define its term

Stock information is displayed on an electronic board inside the Australian Securities Exchange on Tuesday amid the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs. Photograph: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images
Stock information is displayed on an electronic board inside the Australian Securities Exchange on Tuesday amid the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs. Photograph: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

Pick a chart, any chart – they all tell the same story. Stock market indices continued their downward plunge the world over on Monday as US president Donald Trump’s seemingly irreversible mission to reshape global trade left policymakers and traders transfixed – and aghast.

In Cork, Taoiseach Micheál Martin urged dialogue, arguing the only path to stability was through a deal – a tone mirrored by Tánaiste Simon Harris in Luxembourg, where he downplayed the prospect of the EU rolling out its big bazooka – the Anti-Coercion Instrument. Their entreaties echoed those from big business as fears of a recession lurked.

Will any of it make a difference? It certainly looks like in the short term, the volatility will not abate, and neither will the threat of further escalation. As Brussels circulated a list of proposed first tariffs on US imports, the removal of bourbon from the list offers a reprieve to Irish distillers fearful of counterstrikes from the US – but the bigger picture remains full of foreboding.

The Government here knows it is in the teeth, already, of the first big thing that will define its term. As the Coalition prepares for its first budget-making cycle (having delayed the Spring Economic Statement in the likely forlorn hope that things are calmer in a few weeks), that is about the only thing that can be said with any degree of certainty - and there looks to be decent odds that things will get rockier still before any calm.

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Pat Leahy has the wrap of yesterday’s events here.

Meanwhile, our lead story today focuses on a much more domestic question. Martin Wall reports that a health watchdog report will issue sharp criticism of a surgeon over using unauthorised springs in spinal surgeries for children.

It is the first of two inquiries into controversies surrounding elements of orthopaedic surgery at Temple Street hospital in Dublin – and doubtlessly, the first big challenge for new Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill, who is expected to brief Cabinet today. It will bring into sharp focus the Government’s confidence in Children’s Health Ireland (CHI), which runs paediatric services in the State.

There were mounting frustrations over a number of issues emanating from CHI during the term of MacNeill’s predecessor, Stephen Donnelly, not least the orthopaedic controversies, but also waiting times for scoliosis patients and preparations for taking over the new national children’s hospital.

As the State finally prepares to take the keys of the €2 billion hospital, will MacNeill and her Cabinet colleagues trust CHI to get it right as it battles this controversy? It is a classic healthcare crisis, as the fate of vulnerable patients overlaps with questions over governance, oversight and the huge amounts of State cash.

Best Reads

Fintan O’Toole on those plunging graphs and the message for Donald Trump from the hive mind of capitalism.

Rosita Boland is writing from Tallinn on Estonia’s relationship with Russia (and bear stew).

Hugh Linehan on the fate of technology and media in an age of tariff uncertainty.

The prospect of a trade war is impossible to escape across the paper today - but as Colin Gleeson reports, it could be the thing to finally put manners on house prices.

Our editorial on the Netflix levy decision by Patrick O’Donovan.

Playbook

Action kicks off today with the weekly Cabinet meeting scheduled for 9am, before Tánaiste Simon Harris begins his trip to the United States where he will meet trade secretary Howard Lutnick. Here’s what we know about what’s coming up at Cabinet.

Minister for Agriculture Martin Heydon is in Washington, DC, for meetings with the Trump administration, including agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins, and the US and Irish agribusiness sectors.

The usual Tuesday round of plinth doorsteps with the Opposition parties will take place across the morning.

In the Dáil, Leaders’ Questions is at 2pm, followed by the Order of Business and Taoiseach’s Questions. Government Business in the afternoon is taken up with the second stage of legislation enabling workers to withdraw their consent to retire at their contractual retirement age.

In Private Members’ time, Sinn Féin has legislation that would remove Uisce Éireann’s rights to introduce charges for use of water over a certain threshold.

In the evening, Helen McEntee takes Oral Questions before Topical Issues wraps up the day at 9.25pm.

Here’s the full schedule.

The Seanad takes Commencement Matters at 2.30pm, with Government Business in the afternoon given over to the report and final stages of legislation governing the investigation of marine accidents. In the evening, there will be statements on disability.

The full schedule is here.

Still no committees, so that’s it for the day in Leinster House.

Minister for Housing James Browne will attend the Irish Home Builders’ Association Summit in the afternoon.

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