ATHLETICS/World Cross Country Championships: The World Cross Country was once compared to a game of poker. To win this race, you have to be holding five good cards.
Right now Sonia O'Sullivan probably holds four good cards: no great pressure, no great rivals, that natural competitive streak and the advantage of running on home soil. Yet this is a race where the slightest shortcoming can be multiplied.
Since giving birth to her second daughter 13 weeks ago, everything has gone to plan, and it's clear now that O'Sullivan is fast approaching top fitness.
Her first glance at the course at Leopardstown yesterday also raised her confidence a little more.
"The course looks very nice," she said. "Just coming in here gives you a few more butterflies. It's like seeing an empty stadium before a big race. And I think I just gained another 10 per cent walking in here today."
Even in the absence of the top Ethiopian's Gete Wami and Derartu Tulu, there are runners who right now hold stronger cards than O'Sullivan, simply because they've had a whole season to prepare for this race, and not just a couple of months.
Runners like Carlo Sacramento of Portugal, seventh last year and coming off a sharp indoor season, and the other top Ethiopians, like Werknesh Kidane and Genet Gebregiorgis, or the most dangerous Kenyan, Edith Masai, third last year and a convincing winner of their trials.
O'Sullivan, though, is not dwelling on who she has to beat: "I just have to think about how well I can do myself, and I can't be worried about anyone else. They're going to do what they're going to do anyway. I just have to get out there early on, keep up for as long possible, and hopefully be as competitive as possible towards the end.
"And I don't want to set limits. Then you tend to accept things, and maybe not give it your all. But at the same time I'm not going to expect too much either. I just know I've been improving every week, and getting further and faster each week."
She describes tomorrow's 4km short course race as "the perfect distance" for this stage of her training. Whether it is the perfect distance for the Irish team is not so certain, and to get into the medals the top four runners will have to be at their very best.
Anne Keenan-Buckley, Maria McCambridge and Rosemary Ryan can not afford an off-day.
Paula Radcliffe is definitely holding five good cards for today's long course race. Never before has the world championship produced such a clear favourite (currently 1 to 4), and she is set to become the first woman to retain the title since America's Lynn Jennings in 1991-92.
But she definitely won't be coming back for the short course title.
"The main focus for me right now is (next month's) London marathon," she said. "But this title is very important to me as well, and it's still the race I want to win."
