Joe McCarthy’s strong form for Leinster this season looks set to see him named in the Ireland side for Friday night’s Six Nations opener against France in Marseille.
After two starts in his previous five Tests, the 22-year-old lock is in line to be given his first start in the Six Nations when Andy Farrell unveils his side at around lunchtime on Wednesday.
The 6ft 6in, 112kg McCarthy started the World Cup pool win over Romania and played the last 22 minutes of the quarter-final against New Zealand off the bench, since when he has become an established starting lock with Leinster. He has produced a string of big performances in the Champions Cup pool wins over La Rochelle, Stade Francais and particularly in his try-scoring display against Leicester at Welford, as well as the St Stephen’s Day win over Munster at Thomond Park.
Farrell and Paul O’Connell have clearly been big fans all along, wasting little time in bringing him into squads such as the 2022 tour to New Zealand and the ensuing Emerging Ireland tour to South Africa, and seemingly McCarthy’s form has made him impossible to ignore.
The likelihood is that the only other changes to the starting XV which faced the All Blacks are in part forced. Jack Crowley, an unused replacement in that quarter-final in Paris, is expected to start in place of the retired Johnny Sexton at outhalf, while Crowley’s Munster team-mate Calvin Nash looks a more likely replacement for the injured Mack Hansen than Jordan Larmour.
It also appears as if Garry Ringrose’s participation in Friday’s tournament opener has been placed in doubt by a shoulder issue, with Robbie Henshaw in line to start after a welcome injury-free run with Leinster this season.
Iain Henderson, who started that World Cup quarter-final, could miss out on the matchday 23, as James Ryan, who was a replacement in the pool finale against Scotland before being ruled out of the quarter-final, is likely to be named on the bench again.
Cian Healy, ruled out of his fourth World Cup by the knee injury he suffered in the final warm-up game against Samoa, may also be restored to the bench. One of the consequences of Peter O’Mahony being anointed as Sexton’s successor for the captaincy – while it comes with no guarantees – could restrict Ryan Baird’s game time. But akin to McCarthy, it would be no surprise if his fine form for Leinster this season saw him accommodated in a 6-2 split on the bench.
In the absence of the injured Jimmy O’Brien and were Henshaw to start in place of Ringrose, then it seems likely that Ciarán Frawley’s versatility will earn him the number 23 jersey.
Whoever is named on the right wing in place of Hansen, one presumes it was a tight call. Although both Nash and Larmour are 26, the latter is considerably more experienced, albeit he won the last of his 30 caps in the victory over Japan in July 2021.
Given his acceleration and footwork, Larmour is arguably the better finisher, as evidenced by six tries in 10 games for Leinster this season. Nash, whose sole cap to date was off the bench in the World Cup warm-up win over Italy, has scored four tries in 12 games for Munster this season.
Nonetheless, Nash has played plenty of rugby over the last two seasons, and the investment in him started with that Emerging Ireland tour and continued with the wider World Cup training squad, when Larmour was injured.
France vs Ireland preview with Gordon D'Arcy and Noel McNamara
Nash is perhaps more alike to Hansen in the manner he works across the pitch and is superb under the high ball, especially when chasing and contesting box kicks.
Fabien Galthié is expected to tread cautiously when he too unveils the French side for this intriguing opener in the Stade Vélodrome at around lunchtime on Wednesday.
The Bordeaux centre Yoram Moefana will seemingly be picked out of position on the left wing ahead of Louis Bielle-Biarrey, while Gael Fickou looks set to be retained in midfield alongside Jonathan Danty despite looking a little weary and out of form, such is his importance as their defensive leader.
In the absence of the Olympics-bound Antoine Dupont, Maxime Lucu (an unused sub in their 29-28 quarter-final loss to South Africa) will most likely start alongside his Bordeaux-Bègles halfback partner Matthieu Jalibert.
In the pack, the frontrow will remain unchanged from the quarter-final, while Francois Cros will probably come in for the injured Anthony Jelonch. But in the absence of the sidelined Thibaud Flament, the big change will be a new, more physical secondrow of the recalled Paul Willemse and Paul Gabrillagues, with Cameron Woki demoted to what is even more likely to be a 6-2 bench split.
IRELAND (v France, possible): Hugo Keenan; Calvin Nash, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Jack Crowley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Tadhg Beirne, Joe McCarthy; Peter O’Mahony (capt), Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, James Ryan, Ryan Baird, Jack Conan, Conor Murray, Ciarán Frawley.
FRANCE (possible): Thomas Ramos; Damian Penaud, Gael Fickou, Jonathan Danty, Yoram Moefana; Matthieu Jalibert, Maxime Lucu; Cyril Baille, Peato Mauvaka, Uini Atonio; Paul Gabrillagues, Paul Willemse; Francois Cros, Charles Ollivon, Gregory Alldritt.
Replacements: Julien Marchand, Reda Wardi, Dorian Aldegheri, Cameron Woki, Sebastien Teofifenua, Paul Boudehent, Nolann Le Garrec, Louis Bielle-Biarrey.
