Behemoth Manu Tuilagi's doesn't make England's squad for the Welsh visit to Twickenham this Sunday so he may well tog out in Italy's Stadio Olimpico next week. That'll certainly open the doors for a serious scoreboard in England's favour. In the meantime Ireland will be back in Paris where France can be awful and still beat anyone.

Remember in the glorious 2000 fixture over France: Brian O’Driscoll scored three sensational tries and yet Ireland only won 25-27.

Ireland are 21 points ahead of England, which will most likely shift to 36 points this weekend. England and Tuilagi could reasonably make this up over Italy. So with the Championship in mind, tomorrow is a must win, ideally by 30ish points. So, do Ireland bring a canon to the gunfight or rely on pace and precision?

Ignoring the previous brilliance of Italian legend Sergio Parisse to focus on his Scottish match and indeed Italy's performance is the answer. Parisse and others are rested tomorrow, which may be no bad thing for Italy as both he and young outhalf Tommaso Allan were underwhelming in many facets last week. And the Italian team have technical issues which must be exposed through precision and pace.

Ireland’s offensive hits, especially from second phase onwards, should keep the Italian ball-carrier behind the gain line and his immobile support out of influence.

It's the next wave of Irish defence, the line speed, and crucially the hit that'll completely stunt Italian flow and push Luciano Orquera into a kicking game; our back three have no issues there.

Multiphase plays
In attack, Italy lean on one-out multiphase plays, limiting error levels and aiming to get at weak shoulders. Their centres, especially Gonzalo Garcia, are very comfortable in traffic.

However the Italians are very exposed at their own breakdown, where there is little evidence the support runners arrive with a coordinated method of securing the ball on their terms. Peter O’Mahony would have loved this.

They are also disappointing at the breakdown when defending, where only the most obvious steal option is hunted.

They are either unable or unaware of methods we take for granted. It’s possibly a team tactic to disengage from the evolving ruck (Parisse especially keen to stay off) but dangerous against precise teams.

Scotland were unable to consistently punish Italy; Ireland will have less difficulty, with more space for Conor Murray and Eoin Reddan; ditto England.

Scotland's John Beattie, having secured a poor Italian clearance kick, was meekly double-teamed by prop Martin Castrogiovanni and secondrow Josh Furno. Parisse stood supervising, accepting Beattie's success, before slipping away into the open pillar position for the next phase. Jamie Heaslip and co would simply choke-tackle Beattie in a three-man coordinated play; creating a turnover.

The new Italian backrow may have more energy and are unlikely to play it as loose as Parisse but monster Furno switching to six from secondrow is a huge bonus to Ireland and must be exposed.

He’s slow in the lineout but the best place to start is with Heaslip, Murray and Andrew Trimble off the scrum. For that to happen our frontrow must gain parity.

Mike Ross et al were most impressive in Twickenham but since moving to Touloun, tighthead Castrogiovanni has evolved. To help Castrogiovanni, the backrow stay down and totally commit to the scrum.

The three opening scrums against scotland all resulted in penalties to Italy, all against tighthead Moray Low – watch out Ross!

Smash and grab
Then the first Scottish scrum resulted in an eight-man Italian smash and grab for their fourth scrum penalty. Unfortunately Allan missed the goal attempt and the scrum proved less important. Italy gain opportunities but Orquera must convert.

Italy will miss Parisse’s powerful presence going forward; sucking in defenders and offloading beautifully to afford an opening try for Allan.

Italy's lineout is intriguing; superb against Wales and France, but crumbling against Scotland. Part of their problem (which is fixable) is their entry into the lineout, especially off a penalty touch find; arriving slowly with poor speed on the floor. Italian hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini couldn't fly the arc to the tail where high tower Jim Hamilton kept pinching!

A disjoint between the movement on the ground and the release of the Italian throw, afforded the Scots time to read, assess and react to the throw.

Ireland should match Italy in set-piece and will gain breakdown advantage. Ireland’s attack should expose Italy’s habit of keeping four back during phase play waiting for the kick; especially from deep as that’s when Italy will have 11 players defending 15 Irish.

When committed Italy defend four up but narrow, Ireland will have major options; target and run over the very vulnerable Orquera, get wide outside (Sexton loop), chip into green grass.

I can outline any amount of opportunities Scotland squandered but suffice to say, pace and variation with concentrated precision will ensure an Irish victory; over to you Iain Henderson; enjoy.
l iamtoland@yahoo.com