If the United States is the big geopolitical winner from the Ukraine war, China and the European Union are among the losers. And the relationship between China and Europe has been one of the first casualties of the war, as they have found themselves on different sides.
Officially, China is neutral in the conflict and while it did not endorse Vladimir Putin’s invasion, it has never condemned it. Beijing has refused to join the US and the EU in sanctioning Moscow but it has avoided breaching western sanctions.
But China has given economic and diplomatic support for Russia, buying its energy and supplying consumer goods including cars to the Russian market. China’s top diplomat Wang Yi was in Moscow meeting Putin on the eve of the anniversary of the invasion and Beijing has joined other major developing countries like India and South Africa in refusing to support United Nations resolutions condemning Russia.
Costs of Putin’s invasion for China are greater than the benefits and the longer the war continues, the greater the risk of further adverse consequences
China has benefited economically from cut-price energy from Russia and an enhanced market for its manufactured goods. And Putin’s isolation has made him more dependent and subordinate in his relationship with Xi Jinping.
But the costs of Putin’s invasion for China are greater than the benefits and the longer the war continues, the greater the risk of further adverse consequences. This is one reason China has been pressing for a negotiated settlement, most recently in a position paper on Friday calling for a ceasefire and peace talks.
The war pushed Europe back into the embrace of the US as the guarantor of its security and the EU fell sharply into line with Washington on everything from sanctions against Russia to the supply of weapons to Ukraine. This has weakened Europe as an independent actor as its reliance on the US for security and energy (as much of the gas previously imported from Russia has been replaced with American liquefied natural gas) will make Washington’s future demands harder to resist.
This is a problem for China, which has long encouraged Europe to pursue strategic autonomy and is now facing a more united transatlantic bloc. When Chinese and European officials met by video conference for a scheduled summit soon after last year’s invasion, the Europeans felt that the Chinese failed to grasp how serious Putin’s action was for Europe.
For their part, the Chinese have felt frustrated by the Europeans’ constant badgering about a conflict in which China is not a participant or even a sponsor of either side. But if the Chinese are disappointed by Europe’s behaviour, they regard that of the US as in keeping with Washington’s ruthless pursuit of hegemony.
Foreign ministry spokesman Wang Weibin summarised Beijing’s view of Washington’s conduct on Thursday when he was asked about US policymakers criticising China’s friendship with Russia.
The US-led Nato is responsible for wars on Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria that killed more than 900,000 and created 37m refugees
— China's foreign ministry spokesman Wang Weibin
“The US is the number one warmonger in the world. The US was not at war for only 16 years throughout its 240-plus years of history. The US accounted for about 80 per cent of all post-World War two armed conflicts. The US is also the number one violator of sovereignty and interferer in the internal affairs of other countries. According to reports, since the end of world war two, the US has sought to subvert more than 50 foreign governments, grossly interfered in elections in at least 30 countries and attempted assassination on over 50 foreign leaders,” he said.
“The US is also the number one source of antagonism and bloc confrontation. The US-led Nato is responsible for wars on Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria that killed more than 900,000 and created 37 million refugees. It has also made the Eurasia continent a less stable place. The impact of US-initiated Quad [security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan and the US] and Aukus [three-way strategic defence alliance between Australia, the UK and US] on Asia-Pacific security and stability also calls for vigilance. As long as US hegemonism and belligerence still exists, the rest of world will hardly get the peace it deserves.”
Despite the diplomatic cost to China of the invasion, Xi was never likely to abandon Putin, who shares his view of American hegemony and is a dependable partner on the United Nations Security Council. Above all, joining the collective West in condemning and even sanctioning Russia would be unlikely to deliver any lasting benefit to China.
The Biden administration has made clear that halting China’s rise as an economic, technological and military power is its top foreign policy priority. And Washington is unlikely to ease its pressure on Beijing over Taiwan in return for Xi’s help in isolating Putin.
Over the past year, China has had an opportunity to inspect the instruments of economic torture the US and its allies have been using on Russia and which could one day be used against Beijing. China’s economy is 10 times bigger than Russia and more deeply entangled with Europe and America but Beijing is still vulnerable to being shut out of the financial system as Russia has been.
After the invasion, Russian banks were excluded from the international payments system and the country’s foreign currency reserves held in dollars, euros and sterling were frozen. European and American policymakers have spoken openly about confiscating these assets and spending them on reconstruction projects in Ukraine.
China has stepped up its efforts to persuade trade partners to pay for goods in renminbi but there is a limit to how much it can escape the dominance of the dollar while remaining most other countries’ biggest trading partner. But Beijing has learned lessons from Moscow on how to build a domestic economy which is almost sanctions-proof.
It is the strength of the US’s alliances over Ukraine that has amplified the impact of its sanctions against Russia and China has in recent months stepped up its own diplomatic activity. Although European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen was dismissive of China’s peace proposal on Friday, others such as French president Emmanuel Macron have welcomed Beijing’s engagement.
China has already seen a dramatic improvement in its relationship with Australia in recent months and Xi has been nurturing other relationships in the region
Wang skipped Brussels on his recent tour of Europe but he visited Rome and Paris and Macron is expected in Beijing within the next few weeks. Meanwhile, as China’s economy reopens after the end of zero-Covid, European, American and British businesses are crowding back into the country.
China has already seen a dramatic improvement in its relationship with Australia in recent months and Xi has been nurturing other relationships in the region. The damage the war in Ukraine has caused to Europe’s economy makes the economic relationship with China more important than ever.
China’s peace proposal came at a moment when most western leaders are not ready to consider any alternative to continuing the war and supplying more weapons to Ukraine. But if the fighting over the coming months tilts the balance in one direction or another, the mood among Kyiv’s backers could change and the idea of a ceasefire might seem less outlandish.
If that happens, China could yet find itself playing a role in persuading Putin to make peace and pressuring him to accepting unwelcome terms. Such a development would not change Washington’s view of Beijing but it could ease relations with the Europeans, at least until the next crisis.
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