Poland’s election numbers told one story on Sunday evening in Warsaw, the atmosphere at rival party election events another.
After two controversial terms in office – demonising rivals as “evil” and reshaping state institutions to suit its political needs – the national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) topped the poll once more.
But wily PiS chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s increasingly authoritarian style of politics had alienated many voters and robbed him of potential coalition allies. There was a sense of an ending rather than victory as the PiS election-night gathering ended just 90 minutes after polls closed.
The party was even more funereal over at the far-right Konfederacja. Its grand plans to reform Polish democracy evaporated as the support it picked up only mirrored the PiS decline. Guests bailed after 30 minutes, leaving true believers alone with free bottles of vodka.
Celebrations went on late into the night at the Civic Coalition party, but its pro-EU leader Donald Tusk woke up on Monday morning with a challenging to-do list.
After seven years as prime minister to 2014, and five years as European Council president, the now 66-year-old’s most common refrain on the campaign trail was his determination to unite the country.
After eight years of divisive politics and corrosive, violent political rhetoric – including from Tusk’s own camp – lancing that boil will be a tricky business. Above all, millions of PiS voters have been conditioned to view Tusk variously as a German spy, Russian stooge and Brussels patsy, determined to sell out Poland.
Mr Tusks’s path back to power in Warsaw depends on uniting his Civic Coalition, a three-party alliance, with two coalition partners which are themselves political alliances of multiple parties.
If the opposition takes power, it has to find a way to reform Poland’s politicised public media and courts in a way that is far-reaching enough to end a seven-year rule-of-law standoff with Brussels – but doesn’t scorch the earth at home.
Amid all the hopes of a fresh start, experienced voices warned on Monday not to underestimate Kaczynski. Former president and Solidarity leader Lech Walesa, who gave the PiS leader his start in politics before the two fell out, predicted on Monday that Kaczynski “will be scheming not to relinquish power”.
Regardless of the outcome, the real winner of Sunday’s election was Polish democracy. There were huge queues around the country, with some voters waiting five hours to cast their ballot, resulting in a record turnout of around 73 per cent.
Barring surprises, Sunday evening marked a slow curtain on a controversial era that brought Polish democracy – and the legal consensus underpinning the EU – to the brink, stopping just short of the point of no return.