After 20 months of war that has seen tens of thousands of Palestinians killed, large parts of Gaza reduced to rubble and continued warnings about dire humanitarian conditions and possible famine, the European Union may finally be approaching a “point of departure” in its relations with Israel, several diplomats say.
Throughout Israel’s military campaign in Gaza the response of the EU to the conflict has been defined by its inability to agree on a response.
For a long period Spain and Ireland, as well as Belgium and Slovenia at times, were lonely outliers calling for the bloc to use what leverage it has to hold Israel accountable for the mounting deaths of Palestinian civilians.
More than 55,000 Palestinians have been killed during Israel’s invasion of Gaza, which followed the October 7th, 2023 attacks by Hamas militants in southern Israel.
In a sign the tide of opinion had begun to shift against Israel, some 17 of the EU’s 27 states last month backed a review into whether Israel’s actions in Gaza had breached human rights commitments it signed up to, as part of an EU-Israel association agreement.
The agreement governing relations between the two has been in place since 2000. Crucially, it includes a free trade deal, which is economically valuable to Israel, given the EU is its biggest trading partner.
The EU review said evidence “indicates” Israel’s actions in Gaza had breached its human rights obligations under the deal. Foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels on Monday to discuss the findings.
One big question mark is how Israel’s war with Iran will shift the dynamics in the room when the doors close behind the ministers.
The coalition of states who favour tougher consequences for Israel has grown to include Sweden, Finland, Luxembourg, Portugal and the Netherlands.
The push to order a review of the EU-Israel deal was led by the Dutch, a traditional ally of Israel. The fact the move came from a government who previously sat in the middle ground of the debate probably convinced others to shift position. One of the union’s two big powers, France, was also on board.
Just because 17 capitals voted in favour of a review taking place does not mean they will all agree about what should be done now.
“This group is not homogenous, there are those who would wish to see more immediate measures taken [and] those who still want to give Israel a chance to act,” one diplomat involved in negotiations said.
“It is clear that the grouping of 17 member states is not one big bloc ... I’m hopeful that most of that group will stay together,” another diplomat said.
Behind the scenes the Dutch are trying to keep the wide level of support intact, to secure a voting majority in support of some EU action to put pressure on Israel.
“We don’t expect any decisions on Monday,” one EU diplomat said of the foreign ministers meeting.
Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign affairs chief who chairs the meetings, will take soundings from the room about the findings of the review.
It is likely Ms Kallas will be asked to go away and prepare possible options to put on the table at the next meeting of foreign ministers on July 15th, several diplomatic sources said.
A group of nine states recently suggested the EU needs to do more to cut off trade with illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank and other occupied Palestinian territories.
In a separate June 10th letter to Ms Kallas, the Swedish government said the EU should “urgently” adopt sanctions targeting Israeli ministers who promote illegal settlements.
There had been signs that even Germany, one of Israel’s biggest defenders, might be poised to change its position. That was before the fighting between Israel and Iran escalated so significantly.
Comments from German chancellor Friedrich Merz since then suggest the government is rowing in behind Israel, lowering the chances of Berlin supporting any EU penalties or sanction.
Hungary and the Czech Republic have consistently opposed the EU taking action against Israel. That means suspending the EU-Israel agreement in full is off the table, given such a move would require the unanimous backing of all 27 states. Suspending elements of the deal may only require a majority.
One EU diplomat speculated recent strikes in Iran, which Israel justified as necessary to prevent Tehran developing nuclear weapons, should not divert the world’s attention from the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The EU should be careful not to “fall into the trap” and totally shift its focus, the diplomat said.
Agnes Bertrand Sanz of aid charity Oxfam said the cost of inaction by the EU would be measured in lives. “Homes flattened, hospitals destroyed and looming famine ... There is no time for more debate,” she said.
The cumbersome process of agreeing on a common foreign policy position in a union of 27 governments, means any EU decision to sanction Israel – if a decision is taken – probably remains weeks or even months away.
