Since the fall of Bashar-al Assad’s brutal regime in December, Syrians speaking to The Irish Times have frequently cited economic problems as their biggest concern. The financial impact has been felt across the country – from eastern cities Damascus and Homs, to Raqqa in the north and Daraa in the south.
Corruption, neglect and the destruction of war have led to a breakdown of services, while international sanctions have isolated the economy. The Syrian pound has collapsed since the war started 14 years ago. In March 2011, the exchange rate was 48 pounds to the US dollar. The rate is now about 10,000 pounds to a dollar.
Of approximately 23 million people in Syria, 16.5 million are in need of humanitarian assistance, according to the United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
Estimates for the cost of reconstruction range between $250 billion and $400 billion.
“All things considered, Syria’s transition has gone just about as smoothly as could have been envisioned, but external actors don’t appreciate how fragile the situation is becoming,” Charles Lister, the director of the Middle East Institute Syria programme, posted on X in February. “Assad’s departure gave way to euphoria, as Syrians embraced newfound freedom. But regime change did nothing to fix Syria’s broken economy and worse-than-ever humanitarian crisis.”
The web of sanctions affecting Syria is complex. Vittorio Maresca di Serracapriola, sanctions lead analyst at the consultancy Karam Shaar Advisory Limited, which specialises in Syria’s political economy, said it is important to distinguish between two types.
“First, there are the sectoral and Assad-related sanctions, which the EU, US, and UK imposed following the uprisings, although the US started its sanctions policy against Syria much [earlier], with the country being designated a state sponsor of terrorism already in 1979,” he said.
The rationale for implementing these sanctions, he said, “no longer holds”.
“Second, there are UN-mandated sanctions targeting groups like al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. These now affect the new administration and its members, including the de facto president. Because these sanctions come with a UN mandate, every member state must implement them – arguably making them even more impactful.”
When sanctions are in place, there is often over-compliance, which means that even if something is technically legal, companies will disable certain services or avoid dealing with people inside a sanctioned country to avoid facing problems or uncertainty.
It doesn’t matter who is doing the security, even Israel. I’m just asking for stability
— Raafet
As a result, Syrians have been financially and often technologically cut off: they cannot receive bank transfers from relatives or clients abroad. Google, Zoom and Microsoft emails are blocked, among many other things.
Some controls have been relaxed or lifted. A spokesman for the Department of Foreign Affairs said Ireland “supports the progressive easing of EU sanctions to support Syria’s recovery, conditioned on the transitional government ensuring progress is made towards the creation of a new inclusive Syria”.
The US granted certain waivers in January and the EU partially suspended sanctions in February. In March, the UK lifted sanctions on 24 Syrian entities, including its central bank. But analysts worry this is not enough.
In the Mesaken al Shuhada neighbourhood of Raqqa, the Syrian city once considered the capital of the Islamic State, residents still live between buildings destroyed by the US-led war on the extremist group.
[ Islamic State regains strength in SyriaOpens in new window ]
In February Um Nmr (31) said the fall of the regime had no effect on her life. “We don’t care, there’s been no change.” Her main problem was the high price of rent: it cost the family the equivalent of €44 a month. Her husband, a daily worker at “whatever he finds”, earns about €132 a month – hardly enough to cover electricity, food and other expenses for the couple and their five children.
“It’s really miserable here,” said another woman, Um Ibrahim (59), standing with her granddaughter and grandson. When asked about the new leadership in Damascus, she said “we don’t care about this stuff”.
As a retired teacher, “we used to get our salary from the former government but now it’s been cut off”. She said she stopped receiving her pension months before the regime fell: it was 700,000 Syrian pounds (roughly €47) a month. Her husband is paralysed and she supports other members of her family. “Conditions are zero, no food support.”
Nearby, four men and two boys were warming themselves around a fire.
“Since 2012, we haven’t had a government really,” said 40-year-old Raafet. “For the people who work it’s okay, but for the ones who don’t, it’s bad ... There is a lot of looting and thieves because of poverty.”
Raqqa remains in Syria’s de facto autonomous northeast, though the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) signed a deal with the new Damascus government last month, aimed at integration.
Raafet said people in Raqqa need job opportunities first. Secondly, they need security to stop robbery and looting. “It doesn’t matter who is doing the security, even Israel. I’m just asking for stability.”
Another man, 42-year-old Ahmed, said that while rents have remained stable, the daily wage is just 100,000 Syrian pounds (€6.75). “People are more concerned about the economy than politics,” Ahmed said. “People are even stealing parts of cars because of poverty.”
“There’s no more future for us,” said Raafet. “I’m already 40. And the new generation, they don’t go to school, what kind of future can they have?”
Climate change is worsening the situation. A 2023 study by the World Weather Attribution academic collaboration found the probability of droughts in Iraq and Syria have increased from a one-in-250-year event to a one-in-10-year event.
“People are worried about drought, they feel they’ll have a poor year this year,” said Bashar, a man from a farming family in Syria’s southern Daraa governorate – traditionally an agricultural hub. He said the sanctions also mean pesticides and fertilisers – more essential in times of drought – are very expensive. “Life is very hard, there is no daily work,” he said, referring to other occasional employment opportunities in fields such as construction.
Problems accessing electricity were regularly cited. Even in capital city Damascus streets go dark at night due to electricity shortages. Many homes run lights off batteries. Solar panels are visible on the roofs of buildings. In February, Omar Shaqrouq, Syria’s interim electricity minister, told NPR that state power was being rationed to two hours a day.
“We are nice people, but poor,” said one taxi driver in Damascus. “It’s always been like this, not so much income.”
Lengthy queues for bread are common, with some people waiting up to 45 minutes. The amount that can be purchased is limited. Bread was heavily subsidised under the former regime, but was often unavailable. The new government has raised prices tenfold.
In the central Muhafaza Square in Damascus, it is common to see lengthy queues for ATMs – separate ones for men and women. One February afternoon, a fight broke out, with a woman screaming “curse you, curse you,” at those around her.
Others behind, with savings to draw on, complained that they had to pay to travel there, and withdrawal amounts were limited. Only one of the five ATMs worked. “There’s no Syrian currency in the banks,” said one woman.
“The economy is bad right now because the past president ran away with all the money,” said another, and those around her nodded.
A woman in her 50s complained about “ghost employees” under the Assad regime – people who received a state salary but did not work. In January, interim finance minister Muhammad Abazeed told Reuters news agency that 400,000 of the 1.3 million people on the government payroll did not go to work. “Removing these will save significant resources.”
The woman in the ATM queue was a teacher for 35 years and said she was not allowed to retire without paying a significant bribe. She said she had also been barred from travelling. A pharmacist, standing beside her, said she was in the same situation. “If you refused to work you’d be imprisoned, they’d accuse you of anything and stick it on you,” she said.
To survive in Syria you needed a second job, the teacher said. Her maximum monthly salary was the equivalent of about €27. There were risks too: she said she had been imprisoned for months before the regime’s fall.
The women began worrying about what would happen if European countries force Syrian refugees to return to Syria. “Those outside are helping us,” one said. “My son is in Germany helping me.”
Swiss-Syrian political scientist Joseph Daher said the state of Syria’s economy is worsening. “The cost of living continues to rise, salaries are not increased and the Syrian pound depreciates. Syrians have become increasingly dependent on remittances. The volume of remittances is higher than both foreign direct investment in Syria – which has been minimal since 2011 – and humanitarian aid, which has averaged over $2 billion [€1.76 billion] per year within Syria in recent years.”
Daher said the international community should maintain and increase humanitarian assistance, and invest in productive sectors of the economy, “particularly manufacturing industry and agriculture”.
Following the fall of the regime, amid a shortage, fuel sellers became ubiquitous at the sides of Syria’s roads.
Ammar (27) said he began transporting petrol from Lebanon days after the regime fell, bringing as many as 900 litres at a time.
Before the regime fell, he said, they had to pay huge bribes to the Syrian army if they wanted to bring fuel in. In February, he was paying no customs fees, “the roads are open”, though the “Lebanese side can cause some problems”. Still, he complained, he only makes “pocket money”.
He threw his hands in the air when asked if new regulations were expected and how the new government is going to improve Syria’s economy. Sanctions affected “the people, not the government”, and had caused the country to “become lifeless,” he said.
In the Homs neighbourhood of Bustan al-Diwan, in March, shopkeeper Atif Akel (55) said the financial and economic situation is seeing “no improvement”. He said fuel prices had risen 300 per cent, though more goods were available “because they opened the market”. The new government loosened import restrictions, meaning cheap foreign goods, long controlled or barred in Syria, have begun entering freely. While welcomed by many, this has led to resentment from some domestic producers and business owners.
[ The ghosts of Khaldiyeh, a Homs neighbourhood devastated by Syria’s warOpens in new window ]
A poor economy risks conflict breaking out again, said Maresca di Serracapriola, “especially given the current post-civil war scenario, where the country lies shattered and the economic divide between winners and losers keeps growing ... Economic insecurity poses a serious threat.
“Alawites – once dominant in the old security apparatus – have lost not only their jobs but also access to housing and essential public services. Their spouses, often employed in the public sector, have also faced dismissals. This deepening economic exclusion is a dangerous accelerant in an already volatile environment.”
