Affordability is becoming an increasing concern for first-time buyers even outside the Greater Dublin Area, according to a new report from the Society of Charged Surveyors Ireland (SCSI).
As the group representing estate agents and surveyors upgraded expectations on 2025 property prices inflation to 5.7 per cent, from 4.5 per cent six months ago, the majority citing lack of supply as the main factor. SCSI vice-president Gerard O’Toole said lack of supply would remain the dominant issue “until annual completion levels are ramped up to 40,000-plus”. They are hovering around 30,000 currently.
Mr O’Toole, said the rate of property inflation recorded in 2024 – around 10 per cent – was “unsustainable”.
Three in four respondents around the State to the SCSI survey reported low levels of available housing stock on the market. More than four in five estate agents now consider that Irish homes are either expensive or very expensive. While that is broadly the same as last year the report notes that there is a noticeable move among agents to the view that property is now “very expensive”.
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The report looks at the ability of a first-time buyer couple with combined earnings of €107,000 – based on a garda and a staff nurse after 10 years of service – and availing of the Help to Buy scheme towards their 10 per cent deposit to buy either a new three-bedroom semidetached property, a two-bedroom terraced home and a three-bedroom terraced one in different parts of the State.
On the basis of the €428,000 mortgage this couple could secure at four times earnings, all three types of property were affordable in Meath, Cork City and county and Galway city and county, but the semidetached property was out of reach in Kildare and Wicklow, where they were priced at €491,000 and €515,000 respectively.
Mr O’Toole says analysis of trends across the five counties indicates that rising prices are making affordability more challenging.
“While Dublin is not included in the scenarios, based on house prices in the capital, it’s clear they are not affordable based on the income thresholds within the study,” he said. “It’s also clear that unaffordability is restricting employment opportunities for many newly qualified professionals with many job vacancies remaining unfilled, particularly in education and health.”
He said the “only realistic prospect” for couples on lower income to find a home would be through either social or affordable housing.
“In the long term the only way to moderate and gradually lower the affordability gap is by ramping up the supply of new homes,” Mr O’Toole said. “At the moment new housing supply is being curtailed by infrastructure deficits in water, electricity and sewerage. Zoned lands cannot be developed without these essential connections, and considerable additional resources need to be applied by the State in this area as a matter of urgency.”
“In addition, the introduction of higher densities, and a more broadly integrated housing mix which better reflects the needs of modern Irish society will be required if we are to address the housing supply crisis.”
In relation to the rental sector, estate agents says that a third of instructions to sell are coming from private landlords. This is down on the 40 per cent figure six months ago but still high. Just over one in eight landlords is now looking to sell, well down on the figure of more than one in three this time last year.
The three main reasons cited for landlords getting out of the market are: overly complex and restrictive rent legislation; net rental returns that are too low; and some landlords coming out of negative equity.
Almost half (47 per cent) of SCSI members feel that properties with a building energy rating (Ber) of B2 or higher can command a price premium of between 5 and 10 per cent, with buyers factoring in lower energy costs, access to green mortgage rates which are lower and other government incentives.
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