The former head of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi once said that “productivity growth is the only possible way to achieve prosperity”. High-quality education is crucial to bringing that about.
Northern Ireland needs an urgent increase in the number of higher education places it has if it is to stand any chance of closing the investment and productivity gaps with Britain or the Republic of Ireland over the next 25 years.
A comparison of 2022/23 data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) for the United Kingdom and from the Higher Education Authority (HEA) for the Republic of Ireland illustrates the chasm that exists.
To close the gap with Britain, Northern Ireland needs to increase full-time undergraduate places from 35,000 to 50,000. Overall, higher education places of all types should rise from 60,000 to 80,000.
Simply put, a better-educated workforce produces more and attracts higher levels of investment than a less educated workforce that is left to work with inferior levels of investment.
The examples are everywhere, but it would be futile simply to look on enviously. One must examine why other places succeeded, and copy the lessons. Given UK spending curbs, this is clearly not going to happen quickly, but plans are needed.
Taking the regional comparisons of the HESA and HEA student numbers alongside official economic data for 2022, we can illustrate the links between higher education, investment and productivity.
Within the 12 regions of the United Kingdom, NI comes second last for the number of higher education places per head, last by a significant margin for investment and third last in productivity.
There is a clear pattern here and it stretches back decades. Putting full-time undergraduate student numbers in perspective, Britain has 42 per cent more places per head than Northern Ireland.
Meanwhile, Northern Ireland has 34,860 full-time undergraduate places compared to 178,515 equivalent places south of the Border, an 86 per cent gap in favour of the Republic per head.
Less than 10 per cent of the Republic’s undergraduates leave to study abroad compared to 30 per cent of Northern undergraduates, so the Republic’s local-full-time-undergraduate-at-local-university ratio is more than double that of Northern Ireland.
Using conservative figures for Gross National Income for productivity and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for investment, the Republic’s investment/GDP and productivity are also both more than double Northern Ireland’s.
Comparing the Republic of Ireland to statistics available from Britain, the former had 35 per cent more full-time undergraduate places per head, investment was 46 per cent higher and productivity was 28 per cent higher.
[ Ireland has highest rate of third-level education in EU ]
Losing students is not all bad as long as most or some come back, especially if students from elsewhere come to study in Northern Ireland and want to stay on to work after they have won their degree. That latter number, however, is dire.
One-third of Northern Ireland students come home within six months of graduation. In 2022/3, there were 29,015 Northern full-time students in Northern Ireland universities and 12,180 Northern students in universities in Britain.
The number exported was offset by 1,330 students coming from Britain, by 1,840 students from the Republic – versus just 650 NI students studying in the Republic – and by 115 from other European Union counties and by 2,195 undergraduates from non-EU counties.
This leaves Northern Ireland losing nearly 11,000 students to Britain. And it has been like this for years, with an average of 12,000 more going to Britain every year than come the other way over the last 10 years.
Some Northern Ireland students leave by choice. Most do not. A significant number are forced to leave because of the Maximum Student Numbers (“MASN”) cap on full-time undergraduates.
In the 2022/23 year, there were about 7,000 available new full-time first-year undergraduate places at Northern Ireland universities for Northern Ireland-domiciled students, but there were 20,000 applications.
Universities can admit additional students from outside Northern Ireland (such as from Britain, the Republic of Ireland, or elsewhere), but these are not counted within the student cap.
It was introduced in 1994, well before UK university fees were introduced, though it must be said that Northern Ireland’s Whitehall subsidy limits fees for NI students at NI universities to half UK levels, which can run to £9,500 (€11,150) a year.
The student cap, however, has restricted the number of full-time undergraduate places that are available in Northern Ireland to a third below the equivalent number in Britain, even though Northern Ireland has a superior fertility rate.
It also serves indirectly to increase the pressure on disadvantaged students, because they are unable to afford to go to Britain for third-level education if they cannot get a place at home.
Put together, this is a demographic missed opportunity – even though Northern Ireland’s fertility rate has been 10 per cent higher than Britain’s every year for years and is projected to remain that way for decades to come.
Northern Ireland is not capitalising upon its most precious advantage. Instead of having 30 per cent fewer places than Britain for those who want third-level education, as it does, it should have 10 per cent more.
Instead, Northern Ireland is feeding Britain’s demographic deficit. Northern Ireland covers healthcare, social care and education costs for students for 18 years yet the benefits are harvested elsewhere.
There is demand for more local places. Just look at the numbers of Northern Ireland students who are taking Open University degrees in 2022/23, which are 94 per cent higher than the equivalent percentage in Britain.
Noting the problem in 2022, Westminster’s Northern Ireland Affairs Committee said it “places a handbrake on the NI economy”, leaving firms less willing to invest, or unable to fill job vacancies and increase their existing investments.
The consequences are clear. Prospective investors and local employers laud the quality of our students, but lament their scarcity. Graduate unemployment is practically zero. The lack of more of them is holding Northern Ireland back.
To break this cycle, thinking must change. Education is not a cost, it is an investment, one that drives economic growth. Universities and governments together can transform economies.
Yes, we face financial constraints. But we must explore creative solutions, including alternative funding and financing for science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) degrees that lead graduates on to high-salary professional positions.
The future prosperity of Northern Ireland depends on taking the right decisions and quickly. Let‘s not squander our demographic advantage any longer. It‘s time to leverage fully the capacity of our greatest asset: our people.
Garrett Curran chairs the Queen’s University Belfast foundation board and is a board member of Santander Asset Management
