Sentiment in Irish business is at its highest level since the crash as firms gain confidence in the economic turnaround. In question now is whether more people – ie voters – come to share such confidence. This will have a critical bearing on the general election to come.

More immediately, the outcome today of the British election will be closely scrutinised in Dublin. Leave aside for a second the final result, unknowable beforehand in a contest this tight. In the campaign itself, similarities with the looming Irish election and points of divergence were evident. Whether David Cameron returns to Downing Street or Ed Miliband takes his place, the fact remains that Cameron’s focus on economic recovery closely resembles the narrative being formulated by Fine Gael and Labour.

Seen from Dublin, some of the parallels are striking. Cameron’s promises of lower taxes, faster growth, bank sale proceeds, an end to austerity and a reduced national debt all seem to prefigure the likely rhetoric in the Irish campaign. Although Fine Gael and Labour will have different strands of emphasis, it is difficult to conceive of them underlining other arguments. The story will centre on recovery, rewards for same and the requirement for “stability”.

Indeed, we’re seeing plenty of this already. As if to clear the decks, the spring statement will be followed next week by an attempt to settle definitively the mortgage arrears debacle. Meanwhile, we’ve seen indications of the cuts to be made from the universal social charge and signs that public-sector workers might gain €800 on average in a new pay arrangement. All of that comes amid Government moves to eliminate possible prison terms for water charge defaulters.

Cut variable rates

There is more. Minister for Finance Michael Noonan told the Dáil yesterday that he is prepared to give powers to the Central Bank to cut variable mortgage rates if it seeks such powers. While outgoing Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan is not in favour of such a departure, Noonan’s latest intervention marks a further effort to prise action from the commercial banks. This is on top of threatened public levies on the banks if they do not cut rates. The banks are reluctant to move, but the message from Government Buildings is beyond ambiguity.

To the insistent argument that people simply don’t see enough of the recovery in daily life after huge sacrifices, the Coalition says more is on its way.

But did similar spice work for Cameron? We’ll know for sure only today, although it is clear enough already that the advancing recovery never delivered a big uplift in opinion poll support for the British prime minister. For all the hurly-burly of the campaign proper, Cameron’s Tories failed to pull away from Miliband’s Labour. Final polls suggest they were neck and neck right to the end, with the ultimate result too close to call.

In sum, Cameron’s situation going into polling day demonstrates that he still looked quite assailable even after two years of growth, lower unemployment and a lower deficit in the public finances. Whether this proves portentous in the Irish setting can only be guessed at. Although the Coalition believes it has executed Herculean fiscal feats since 2011, a decisive turnaround in its fortunes remains elusive.

Still, Coalition denizens here insist the British scene is different. For one thing, Ireland’s flameout presented an existential challenge to the State which was of a different order to the crisis in Britain.

“The psychic scars are deeper and more enduring,” says one Dublin figure. This plays to the “never again” case which would be made as the Government argues for “stability”.

Counterattack

The lines of attack on Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and the hard left are not difficult to predict – nor are the lines of counterattack. Many other variables are in play, among them uncertainty over the ultimate force of the Independents and Renua Ireland, and doubt over the ultimate destination of votes from the large “undecided” cohort.

The recovery here is fragile, and serious problems persist in the health service. Yet Ireland is further down the track of deficit correction than Britain. True, there will be plenty of contentious argument over the allocation of recovery dividends. In the British campaign, however, much of the debate centred on deepening welfare retrenchment and the like. For all the improvement in top- line economic data, that was difficult to square with Cameron’s recovery talk.