The European Commission will give its blessing today to Budget 2016 but the authorities in Brussels are expected to express reservation about the rollover of €1.5 billion in supplementary estimates this year into spending next year.

In its formal opinion on the Government’s financial plan for 2016, the EU executive will say the budget is in “broad compliance” with Europe’s stringent fiscal rules.

The Government was obliged under these rules to bring the deficit below 3 per cent of GDP this year but the budget was predicated on a year-end deficit of 2.1 per cent.

Some Government figures believe the deficit might yet come in below 2 per cent and that the 2016 deficit – targeted at 1.2 per cent of GDP in the budget – could yet come in about 1 per cent if 2015 trends continue.

The commission’s assessment is said to be positive in the main and it will not seek any changes to the budget.

However, it is expected to express some concern that the overall package for 2016 was boosted by new spending measures for adoption in late 2015 which will be continued next year. The Government has taken the benefit this year of a surge in tax revenues, which ensure that it will beat its 2015 targets and might yet eclipse its 2016 targets even as its cuts income tax next year and increases expenditure.

However, the commission is likely to restate that any windfall gains should be deployed for debt reduction.

A different arm of fiscal rules applies next year. Provision for supplementary spending in any department can be made only by cutting budgeted expenditure in other departments.