Heavy data stream to sketch path for rates

This Week: A Federal Reserve policy meeting as well as manufacturing data and inflation numbers on both sides of the Atlantic…

This Week:A Federal Reserve policy meeting as well as manufacturing data and inflation numbers on both sides of the Atlantic will loom large over financial markets next week as investors look to sketch a path for US and euro-zone rates.

A run of strong US economic releases, including jobs, house building and retail sales numbers in recent weeks have dimmed the chances of an imminent Fed rate cut.

An advance reading of US GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2006 due on Wednesday should add to the recent wave of strong data and provide further support for the dollar and stronger bond yields, analysts say.

Among top-tier January data to be released next week in the United States are consumer confidence figures tomorrow, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index on Thursday and non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

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On Wednesday investors will tune into the outcome of Fed's two-day policy meeting.

The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25 per cent , but all eyes will be on clues to future rate moves.

Today's Eurogroup meeting of euro-zone finance ministers could yield some further insight into whether they are going to push for some rhetoric against the weakness of the Japanese yen at the February G7 summit.

In terms of euro-zone data, investors will look to consumer prices for January on Wednesday and manufacturing PMI on Thursday for confirmation that the economy is strong enough and inflation is high enough to warrant more rate hikes from the European Central Bank.

Monday

Results:Amino Technologies, Filtronic (H1), Infineon (Q1).

Indicators: UK CBI distributive trades survey (Jan); Japanese housing starts (Dec) and construction orders (Dec).

Others: European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet attends Eurogroup meeting of euro-zone finance ministers; Cairn Energy issues trading update.

Tuesday

Results: Dobbies Garden Centres, GW Pharmaceuticals, Kensington Group, London Scottish Bank, Porvair, PZ Cussons (H1), Surfcontrol (H1).

AGM: Future.

Meetings: Merrill Lynch holds "year ahead" briefing on financial markets (Treasury Building, Dublin).

Indicators: US Conference Board consumer confidence (Jan) and weekly retail sales; UK consumer credit (Dec) and Nationwide house prices (Jan); French industrial trends (Q1); Japanese household spending (Dec), industrial output (Dec) and unemployment (Dec).

Others: Central Bank of Ireland releases quarterly bulletin; EcoFin meeting of European finance ministers takes place in Brussels; Prudential issues new business figures; Veolia issues sales results; Kazakhmys issues fourth-quarter trading update.

Wednesday

Results: Angle, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya, BSkyB (H1), Danske Bank, ITM Power (H1), NWF (H1), Wolfson Microelectronics.

AGM: Britvic.

Meetings: The Oireachtas Select Committee on Communications, Marine and Natural Resources discusses Electricity Regulation Bill; the Oireachtas Joint Committee on European affairs discusses the EU regulatory environment with Ibec.

Indicators: EU unemployment (Dec), harmonised consumer prices (Jan) and business and consumer confidence (Jan); US GDP (Q4), employment cost (Q4), Chicago PMI (Jan) and new construction (Dec); German unemployment (Jan); French consumer confidence (Jan), unemployment (Dec) and producer prices (Dec).

Others: Tullow Oil issues trading update; Vodafone releases third-quarter performance indicators; US Federal Open Market Committee issues rate decision.

Thursday

Results: AstraZeneca, Banco Santander Central Hispano, Deutsche Bank, Land of Leather (H1), Rio Tinto, Royal Dutch Shell, SAP.

AGM: Mitchells & Butlers.

Meetings: The Oireachtas Joint Committee on Enterprise and Small Business discusses recruitment and retention of research groups with Science Foundation Ireland.

Indicators: Irish NCB purchasing managers' index (Jan); EU PMI (Jan); US personal income and spending (Dec), ISM (Jan), and weekly money supply and jobless claims; UK PMI (Jan); German PMI (Jan) and retail sales (Dec); French PMI (Jan).

Others: Minister of Finance Brian Cowen publishes Finance Bill 2007; Axa releases final sales results.

Friday

Results:British Airways (Q3), Volvo.

Indicators: Irish live register (Jan), industrial stocks (Q3) and capital assets in industry (Q3); EU producer prices (Dec); US non-farm payrolls (Jan), factory orders (Dec) and Michigan consumer confidence (Jan).