The liquidation of IBRC has created a surplus which is likely to be enough to pay off all the unsecured creditors, an update to be published by the liquidators shortly will reveal.
This is good news for the exchequer, as it means it will recoup the €1.1 billion paid to depositors on foot of State guarantees.
However it also now looks certain that cash will be left to pay off the €270 million owed to junior bondholders of the former Anglo Irish Bank, who would receive their money back after ordinary unsecured creditors are paid in full.
Indications that this might happen first emerged in the middle of last year, causing considerable controversy.
A formal two-year review, due to be published shortly by IBRC joint liquidators Kieran Wallace and Eamonn Richardson of KPMG, is expected to indicate that significant excess cash was in place at the end of last year, with further cash to be released as the sell-off process of assets with a book value of €21.7 billion is finished.
The liquidators have already repaid preferential creditors, including €12.9 billion in debt repaid to Nama.
The update will show that, after this, substantial cash reserves remain and will be added to when the final asset sales are completed. Around €1.6 billion would be needed to pay off the main body of unsecured creditors, with around 70 per cent of this owed to the State and it now looks certain that this will be available.
After that, the money owed to the junior bondholders would fall due. These are bondholders who did not accept a buy-out offer from the State in 2010, saying that the terms were too punitive, an argument supported in one case by a London High Court ruling.
Any payout may be delayed for quite some period, however, as the joint liquidators have to be sure that they have enough resources to meet any legal claims. Among the ongoing cases is a major one against the former Anglo by the family of Sean Quinn.
The Government may examine other legal mechanisms – and is likely to kick to touch in the short term by saying bondholders have to file their claims and be verified – but sources believe the latter have a strong legal claim to be paid.
If further funds are available after junior bondholders and all other creditors and fees are paid, any surplus would go to the State, as the former shareholders.