EARLY YESTERDAY morning, without any publicity or fuss, the shutters went up on the new Arnotts store in the Jervis Street shopping centre. They called it a "soft launch" and the full four floors of what was once a Debenhams outlet are not yet fitted out.
In the good old days of the Celtic Tiger, champagne corks would have popped, a ribbon would been cut and a Dublin GAA footballer, sporting county colours with Arnotts writ large, would probably have done the honours accompanied by a glamorous model.
The low-key launch is in keeping with the current mood of Irish shoppers, who are hording their cash, spending it in Northern Ireland, or foraging for bargains in shops in the Republic.
The new Arnotts outlet, within a stone's throw of its department store, has been opened to compensate for the loss of trading space while the €750 million Northern Quarter is being built on the site of the current store.
Two years ago, when the Northern Quarter was launched, it seemed like a great idea.
Now, with 1,500 people losing their jobs each week, the economy forecast to contract by 4 per cent next year, and property values on the floor, it looks like a highly ambitious venture.
Arnotts acknowledges that trading is difficult at the moment. "Trading conditions are tough and, in common with other retailers, Arnotts is not immune," a spokeswoman told The Irish Times.
"Customers are more cautious in their spending, particularly on big-ticket items such as furniture.
"There's a lot of discounting on the high street at the moment, and on top of that there's a potential impact from the VAT reduction in the UK."
She said the 0.5 per cent increase in Ireland's top rate of VAT, introduced in last month's Budget, would hit Arnotts' bottom line. "Arnotts is currently absorbing that itself, so for this company it's effectively become a tax on the retailer."
Recent figures from the Central Statistics Office highlight the slump in retail sales.
Figures for September show that sales fell by 6.5 per cent in volume terms year on year and by 3.8 per cent in value. Economists warn that figures for October and November could be even worse.
Sales of furniture and lighting declined by more than 14 per cent in volume terms over the period.
On Wednesday, Harvey Norman executive chairman Gerry Harvey told shareholders in Australia that he regretted his move into Ireland. Sales, he said, were "catastrophic", with turnover in its 13 Irish stores up to 40 per cent lower than a year ago.
"Ireland is a real worry," he added. "I've never seen something get belted like Ireland."
Mr Harvey said the Irish investment seemed like a good idea at the time and it was too big an investment to pull out now.
Earlier this week, Superquinn chief executive Simon Burke told The Irish Times he would be "gobsmacked" if there weren't significant job losses in the Irish retail sector in the new year. "The business environment for retail is pretty appalling and getting worse, and this has to have a significant impact on jobs."
At the Dundrum Town Centre, the mood is slightly more upbeat. By the end of this year, 20 new retailers will have opened for business, including British toy retailer Hamleys and Elverys, which will next week open Ireland's largest sports store. Don Nugent, Dundrum's centre director, said its footfall would rise this year by 7 per cent to 18 million.
"Business is tighter; people are more cautious, but we are getting growth," he said.
Mr Nugent accepted, however, that January was shaping up to be a difficult month for retailers.
