Economics:It has been my good luck to work for organisations run by people who, in my opinion, are two of the world's best communicators. As well as being former employers, Jean Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank and Terry Prone of Carr Communications have, in their own different ways, shown just how important communication is to any successful economic and business policy.
Even academic economists now accept that good communication - or, as they call it, "an absence of information asymmetries" - can make or break economic policies. Working together, Terry Prone and Institute of Chartered Accountants director Kieran Lyons have put together a book, This Business of Writing.
As well as dealing with the etiquette of writing, it has nuggets of good advice that - judging by the standards of economic policy discussion in the Dáil this year - are badly needed.
The relevance of the book for policymakers is that, for the purposes of policy communication, the arts of writing and speaking are the same thing.
Yesterday's ECB governing council press statement by Trichet was not given off the hoof, but crafted in print in a painstaking process involving teams of people.
The result, for those familiar with ECB lingo, is a reasonably clear statement of what the bank intends to do, why it intends to do it, and when. These communications also take into account how markets may react to policy signals.
By signalling a certain quarter-point rate increase - most likely in March - and a possible further one later this year, Trichet gave prospective house buyers enough information about the future to help them avoid getting too deep into debt.
He also helped money market traders avoid costly and unnecessary mistakes in their trades. After all, the job of a central bank is not to wrong-foot the markets, but to gradually lever demand in the economy to levels of growth that are consistent with price stability.
With clear communication, this can be done with minimal unnecessary collateral damage to house buyers and market players. Incidentally, and in case anyone thinks the consideration shown to money markets derives from clubbishness amongst bankers, it doesn't: by minimizing uncertainty in money markets and financial markets generally, central banks help avoid unnecessary fluctuations in interest rates and uncertainty premiums. And that, in turn, helps borrowers of the most vulnerable kind.
Of course no central banker can simply come out and say: "We'll implement two quarter-point increases, one in March and the other in June."
Monetary policy is never that simple, and when dealing with something as complex as the euro zone economy, a little ambiguity is justified. Oil prices, the US economy and a host of other factors may evolve in unforeseen ways and force a change in policy. But if carefully crafted, ambiguity need not be the same as vagueness. As Prone and Lyons point out, confusing language and vagueness are the prerogative of the arrogant and self-serving and, when crafting your business or policy message, are never acceptable.
But what Trichet has done is different; by using carefully selected words to signal his intentions, he retains a get-out clause for emergencies. The most important word is "vigilant". For those gauging the chances of a rate rise, the frequency with which this word pops up in the press statements that follow the ECB's monthly governing council meeting are like clicks on a Geiger counter. The more often this word is used, the greater the chances of a rate rise in the following meeting.
Having stuck religiously to its approach since Trichet took over as president, such signals are now regarded as almost bankable. In this way ECB has kept its options open while sticking to what Prone and Lyons see as a golden rule: preserving the integrity and credibility of your message. It is a lesson that the ECB learned painfully. In 2001 the ECB was led not by Trichet but by no-nonsense tough-talking Dutchman Wim Duisenberg.
There is no doubt that for the job he had to do - setting up the ECB - Duisenberg was the right man: tough, courageous and pioneering in spirit.
But communication was not his strong point, and as the ECB moved into a steady state, a smoother touch was required. Those with a good monetary memory will remember the debacle of May 2001 when, having signalled strongly that rates would not fall, Duisenberg suddenly announced a rate cut.
Just as Prone and Lyons predict in such instances, the ECB's credibility was seriously dented and took two years to reassemble.
Generally speaking, and no matter how boring they sound, central bankers are in a class of their own when it comes to communication.
Our own central bank's financial stability report may have repeated warnings that it has made umpteen times before. But this is not because it wants to bore us. Rather, it is because central bankers understand another important rule of communication: when calling on an organisation or person to take a certain line of action, make sure they don't look or feel like losers if they comply. Where politicians make their point by raising their voice, central bankers do it by repeating themselves in soft tones. Guess who is easier to agree with?
Michael McDowell might take note of a corollary to this last piece of advice on policy communication. If you're asking for policy action, make sure you don't look like a loser if you are refused, or if you are refused, be ready to stand your ground. His urge to put his stamp on the PD leadership was understandable, and his choice of stamp duty as an issue was, for a party like the PDs, impeccably sound.
Had his signalling to cut stamp duty come just before the election campaign, it would have done what it was intended to do: rally his party's constituency.
Coming as they did before the budget, and however he may have qualified his intentions, his remarks created an expectation that stamp duty would be reformed or cut.
That it was not has unsettled the property market and undermined the credibility of his party's brand.
The rules of policy communication are clear and simple: only say you'll do something when you are good and ready to do it, and if you do commit to action, deliver.
