Euro zone bond yields stay high as policy trumps politics

Mario Draghi has led investors to believe ECB will reduce extraordinary stimulus soon

A recent speech by ECB chief Mario Draghi led investors to believe the bank will reduce extraordinary stimulus soon
A recent speech by ECB chief Mario Draghi led investors to believe the bank will reduce extraordinary stimulus soon

Euro zone bond yields stayed near recent highs as expectations on global growth and tighter monetary policy overshadowed any concerns prompted by a troubled meeting of world leaders over the weekend.

Leaders from the world's leading economies broke with US president Donald Trump on climate policy at a G20 summit on Saturday, in a rare public admission of disagreement and blow to multilateral cooperation.

However, a strong set of US employment data on Friday has added to a feeling that central banks across the world have more reason than ever to continue to unwind the loose policy stance of the post-crisis era.

In Europe, a recent speech by European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi led investors to believe that the bank will reduce extraordinary stimulus sooner rather than later and saw Germany's 10-year borrowing costs double in little over a week.

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Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan offered its most optimistic view of the country’s regional economies in more than a decade on solid exports and private consumption, underscoring its conviction a steady recovery is gathering momentum.

“To me this G20 summit will pass unnoticed by the rates market as it continues to be very much focused on what central banks say and do,” said BBVA strategist Jaime Costero Denche.

A number of policymakers are due to speak through the course of the week, but Costero Denche believes Fed Chair Janet Yellen's hearing before Congress on Wednesday will be key.

Euro zone bond yields were flat to a touch higher in early trades on Monday. The yield on Germany’s 10-year government bond, the benchmark for the region, was unchanged at 0.57 per cent.

At that level it is more than double the 0.25 per cent level at which it began on June 27th, the day when Draghi opened the door to tweaks in the ECB’s aggressive stimulus policy in a speech in Sintra, Portugal.

Investors are now beginning to believe that policymakers around the world are starting to favour tighter monetary policy.

“Unlike in recent years, where there was very patchy growth across the world, we are seeing a synchronized upswing in the global economy,” said Alex Dryden, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.

“So while it may not be coordinated communication, I do think there’s been a change in rhetoric from central banks across the world - though the ECB is the central bank to watch in the second half of the year.”