UTV Ireland will take an 8 per cent share of television viewing in the Irish market 2015, according to a forecast by media agency Carat.

The Belfast-based company's entry into the Republic's television advertising market means there "has never been greater choice and opportunity for advertisers", says Carat Ireland chief executive Ciarán Cunningham.

However, UTV, which is targeting a €20 million-€25 million chunk of the television advertising market, may be disappointed with an 8 per cent viewing share.

“I think they would be looking for a little bit more,” says Cunningham, suggesting a figure of 10 per cent, “but we think that realistically, they will deliver 8 per cent.”

UTV's bid to become the second-most watched television channel in the Republic, behind RTÉ One, has shaken up the market in what Carat says is a "very exciting and dynamic" year for broadcasting.

However, although its arrival will reduce both TV3 and RTÉ's share of business, Carat expects that the market overall will grow 6 per cent this year, helping to offset the losses of the other broadcasters.

Advertising market

The television advertising market will come in at about €216 million this year, up from €204 million last year, according to Carat’s figures, which in turn was up €5 million on 2013.

By Carat’s calculations, digital and mobile advertising, when combined as a category, overtook television advertising in value last year, while even without the inclusion of mobile, digital will pull further ahead of television this year.

The media-buying agency predicts that digital revenues excluding mobile will climb 14 per cent to €225 million in 2015, while mobile will soar 63 per cent to €13 million.

After a flat 2014, the radio market will increase 4 per cent, to €90 million, while print will decline 5 per cent overall, to €156 million, and out-of-home will increase 8 per cent, to €67 million.

Overall inflation

Based on the published RTÉ prices, Carat points to overall inflation in the television advertising market of about 7 per cent this year. “Advertisers will, as they always do, seek out value. They will be looking for ways to negate the impact of inflation,” says Cunningham.

With the Sky group of channels and Channel 4 also active in the market, “there is plenty of choice for advertisers to pick broadcasters and drive value”.

Video-on-demand advertising will continue to nab a greater share of marketing budgets.

The big “game-changer”, Carat states in its media forecast, will be that the ability for advertisers to use programmatic buying to buy video-on-demand inventory will become commonplace.

The practice means brands can buy ads based on behaviour, following users, rather than buying video inventory on specific sites. “Programmatic buying has dominated digital display for a number of years and in 2015 we will start to see it dominate the video-on-demand market also.”