Retail sales fell back in January, despite the post-Christmas sales, according to surprisingly weak data published by the Central Statistics Office.
The figures show that the volume of sales fell back by 1.5 per cent in January from the previous month, with a much larger 6.7 per cent monthly drop if car sales are excluded.
Sales volumes were running 0.3 per cent ahead of the same month last year, according to the figures published yesterday. However, signs of reviving consumer confidence and reasonably strong January sales would have suggested that the figures would have been stronger.
Whatever about the 2.1 per cent monthly fall in the value of sales - which would have been affected by lower prices being charged for goods in the sales - the volume fall took analysts by surprise.
Volume figures net out price trends and are therefore seen as the key indicator.
"These data are disappointing and weaker than expected," commented Mr Jim Power, chief economist at Friends First.
"Based on anecdotal evidence in the January sales, there was heavy price discounting and this would have been expected to result in a significant increase in the volume of sales," he said.
Irish consumers must still be feeling under pressure from lower wage growth and lower bonus payments in the private sector, high levels of indebtedness, ongoing job uncertainty and high prices, Mr Power added.
The breakdown of the figures shows a mixed picture. Bar sales remain weak, running 5.3 per cent down on January 2003 and also 4.2 per cent down from December, after adjusting for normal seasonal trends.
The volume of clothing sales was pushed sharply higher by the sales - up 6.2 per cent on December.
However, the extent of discounting was shown by the fact that the actual value of sales was 0.4 per cent down in the previous month.
A separate breakdown of clothing and footwear sales in specialised stores illustrates this point even more dramatically.
Sales in these shops were up 22.4 per cent in volume on December, but such was the extent of price cutting that the increase in the actual value of sales was just 0.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, sales from food businesses were weak during the month, but were running 3.5 per cent ahead of the same month last year.
Car sales were also weaker, dropping 1.3 per cent from December, after seasonal adjustment.
Given that January is normally a key month for car sales, a more important indication is given by the 4.6 per cent fall from the same month in 2003.
