The business model of most Irish pubs has been obliterated by the coronavirus pandemic. Long-term social distancing in a licensed premises is not just inconvenient and practically unworkable, it is also inherently unprofitable. This may open doors for property developers, however.
As the economy slowly reawakens from a virus-induced coma, it will be remembered that the Republic is in the midst of a housing crisis. Development of those houses may be slowed or complicated by the pandemic. But it will not be halted and developers will soon be back on the market hunting for suitable sites in Dublin in particular. This is where pubs come in, especially those with car parks.
The difficulties facing pubs, and the reality that many of them may not be profitable again for a long time, will force many owners to assess their pubs’ “alternative use value”. In other words, is the pub worth more if we flatten it?
The high-profile Queen’s pub in Dalkey this week told its staff it is making them all redundant as the pub has ceased trading and will not reopen. It is rumoured to be coming on to the market as a development proposition. You don’t close a pub ahead of a sale if you intend to sell it as a trading asset.
The Queen’s has a car park to the rear that would make it an ideal development site in expensive Dalkey, although the building’s status as a protected structure may complicate matters.
Prime development sites are at a premium in Dublin’s coastal suburbs. There are pub sites all over Dublin, including in the city centre, that could work for residential development. Uncle Tom’s Cabin in Dundrum is one that sold recently for potential redevelopment. Quinn’s in Drumcondra also recently came on to the market in that guise.
It may be last orders for many Dublin publicans if the pandemic and social distancing become long-term fixtures. The needs of property developers may give many of them an exit.