The proposals put forward by Greece last night would almost certainly have won acceptance from the creditors a few weeks ago, perhaps with a few tweaks.
They are very similar to plan put to Greece by the EU Commission. But will they be enough now? And will the creditors, led by Germany, offer any prospect of debt relief in return?
The Tsipras government has offered a major reform package. Details are all now out, including politically difficult VAT and pension reforms and the total reportedly comes to €12 billion to €13 billion over the next three years.
In return, the initial pitch is that Greece would get €53.5 billion in bailout funds, but this figure could rise during the talks, to avoid the risk of finding in a year’s time that not enough money was set aside, and to leave enough to recapitalise some Greek banks.
The final figure could be in the €70 billion to €80 billion region.
There will, no doubt, be comings and goings on the details of the plan. But really this comes down to politics. If the German-led creditors do not trust the Tsipras government to implement the plan, they will dismiss it as being “not credible”.
The initial reaction from European capitals appears to be broadly positive.
A crunch point to watch for today is whether the troika - or the ‘institutions’ as the Greeks prefer to call them- believe the numbers still add up.
Damage has been done to the Greek economy in the last few weeks, particularly due to the closure of the banks.
This has hit the level of economic activity and government revenues and, quite likely, widened a hole in the Greek banking system which will surely now need more capital.
So the creditors could argue that yet more is needed in terms of adjustments to the public finances to get back on course.
If the creditors do sign up, then the commitments on debt relief will be interesting to watch, because - even though Greek debt repayments have already been restructured - without some relief over the coming years there is a severe risk of a never-ending recession and no chance of Greece winning make market confidence in the coming years.
There is also talk of EU funding for investment in Greece, though economically this will go nowhere near off-setting the negative impact on growth of more cuts and taxes. Budget targets for the next few years were put in brackets in the letters submitted last night - suggesting they still had to be finalised - highlighting the uncertainty about the exact state of the public finances.
We should get a clear signal of how things are going as the day goes on. Tsipras has to get the proposals through his own parliament. Reaction is expected from the institutions later today and, no doubt, the political doorstep interviews will tell a lot.
The markets are reacting this morning on the basis that a deal could be on. If negotiations could be restarted in earnest this weekend, via some kind of outline deal, then the ECB could release more cash. However for the foreseeable future only a limited operation of the Greek banks is likely, as they will need to be restructured.
But we know from the last few weeks just how tortuous this can be and how the mood can swing on the basis of a few words either way from Berlin.
