At Standard Chartered, a bank that employs more than 80,000 people globally, many jobs now belong to one of two categories.
Some employees work in “sunrise” roles, such as computing or cloud management, where demand is expected to increase over the next five years. Others work in jobs labelled “sunset”, often those vulnerable to automation, which are set to decline.
The categorisation is the bank’s response to imminent and sweeping workforce upheaval.
A quarter of global chief executives warned in a report last week that they expected the size of their workforces to drop by at least 5 per cent this year, as generative artificial intelligence tools are rolled out. Media and entertainment, banking, insurance and logistics were among the industries most likely to predict job losses.
Karin Kimbrough, chief economist at professional network LinkedIn, says such forecasts “spook people”, prompting panicked thoughts of, “Oh gosh, I have to become a coder” or apply for jobs in green industries.
But change, says Kimbrough, can be an opportunity: “As jobs rotate out of prominence, new ones come in.”
Some employers such as Standard Chartered are discovering it is possible to find clues about coming workforce needs and prepare accordingly.
In tech, new developments in machine learning and generative AI have already created opportunities in areas such as prompt engineering and increased demand for jobs in ethics and governance.
The bank is offering training to staff to help those in at-risk jobs prepare for sunrise roles. More than 32,000 have taken up the offer on courses from data analytics to sustainable finance and leadership.
Exact predictions of what kinds of work will emerge and increase in demand over the next decade are notoriously difficult. But strategists are finding signals in today’s economy. The fastest growth now comes from two drivers: technology and sustainability, according to the World Economic Forum.
[ IMF says artificial intelligence will affect almost 40% of jobsOpens in new window ]
In tech, new developments in machine learning and generative AI have already created opportunities in areas such as prompt engineering and increased demand for jobs in ethics and governance.
James Barrett, managing director at recruiter Michael Page, says demand for AI roles that started in big tech companies and dedicated start-ups has spread widely. “The prominence and uptake of ChatGPT in the consumer and business world has woken up the rest of the market.”
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Supply of workers is yet to catch up. “Specific skills required are very difficult to [find] ... given the technology is so new,” says John Varkey, chief information officer of WM, the biggest waste manager in the US, which uses AI in customer service, back-office processing and in calculating the most productive routes for drivers.
At real estate and warehousing company Prologis, human resources head Nathaalie Carey has found demand for green workers is “outpacing supply, as companies navigate their net zero goals and green transitions”. Sander Van’t Noordende, chief executive at recruiter Randstad, says one in eight workers has at least one skill relevant to the green transition, but job postings requiring them have grown by 20 per cent in the past year.
Sometimes growth areas overlap. Global property group JLL, for example, is using AI to help reduce energy consumption. Laura Adams, chief human resources officer, says decarbonisation goals and technology is creating a “paradigm shift when it comes to hiring, retention and recruiting talent”.
Changing demographics, and especially ageing populations, are another engine for job growth, in more hands-on sectors such as care and health, says Stijn Broecke, OECD senior economist. “We’ll get very large shares of the population that are retired ... We know that there will be an increased demand.”
Yet the scenarios are far from certain.
With the public sector a huge employer, unexpected changes in policy and government can also bring labour market surprises.
“Most models use historical data” says Jon Boys, economist at think-tank the CIPD. Economic shocks are by their nature hard to predict. When the UK Department for Education produced a report on skills that would be needed 10 years from 2017, for example, it unsurprisingly did not include the global pandemic in its calculations.
With the public sector a huge employer, unexpected changes in policy and government can also bring labour market surprises. The cancellation of part of the UK’s HS2 rail project last year is one example. “How can you predict the size of the civil service?” says Broecke.
Myriad “social, economic and legal” factors condition how technology is adopted and what roles will be automated, adds Dan Lucy, HR director of think tank Institute for Employment Studies. Although all cashiers could theoretically be replaced by self-service checkouts, retailers continue to appeal to shoppers’ desire for personal assistance, for example.
That unpredictability means “more general” capabilities such as “creativity, emotional intelligence ... and the ability to continually learn” will be important for career resilience, he says.
Nick South, senior partner at Boston Consulting Group, agrees. “Employers are looking for growth flexibility. We don’t know what the role will look like in five years. Your ability to adapt [is important].”
Rather than panic, an emphasis on skills and a flexible attitude should be reassuring, says LinkedIn’s Kimbrough. “People don’t need to worry about the [latest] job of the future 10 years from now but to understand the technology to see where it’s going,” she says. “Understand it’s iterative and you need to stay relevant.” – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024
