If The Taiwan Story, Kerry Brown’s otherwise persuasive work of geopolitical analysis, has a flaw, it is that the title is more than a little deceptive. Dealing almost exclusively with Taiwan’s history since the Allies handed over the island (without ever consulting its inhabitants) to the Republic of China in 1945, the book is far from the historical panorama that its title promises.
Brown’s subtitle, however, is more ingenuous and it points to what is a sober and fair-minded appraisal of the seemingly intractable stand-off that could bring political and economic disaster to the world in the event of escalation.
Taiwan’s world-beating semiconductor and microchip sector, cultivated in the 1980s, is what makes it particularly valuable to the West, but, as Brown points out, its status as a vibrant, pluralistic democracy menaced by a giant, authoritarian neighbour, is also a cause for support. Few outside Taiwan would sympathise as much if the island were still the squalid police state run by the Kuomintang for four decades after the war.
This gulf in freedom, and Hong Kong’s fate under Chinese administration, means there is little appetite for reunification among the Taiwanese. Consequently, the only way China is likely to ever absorb it into its realm is by force, something that has been increasingly viewed as possible, as China accelerates its military development.
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A breakdown in dialogue between the two governments over the past decade has resulted in heightened tensions, but Brown also says the proliferation of opinion pieces pronouncing the inevitability of a Chinese invasion also contributes to the danger. In one chapter, he games out the terrifying regional and global fallout from a prospective war, but he is also lucid enough to know it is far from inevitable, especially given the large logistical challenges to launching an amphibious invasion.
And there are also existential challenges. Brown correctly observes that securing its ultimate prize may be far too big a risk for the Communist Party, which values stability and predictability above anything else. Even an invasion of Taiwan that doesn’t draw a military response from the United States could engender unwelcome social upheaval on the mainland, particularly when the body bags start returning home. Attempting reunification, however coveted it might be, may well be a case of Xi Jinping putting all his chips on red.
Oliver Farry is a critic
