Montenegro still suffers because of federation with Serbia, but gets only sympathy from West

As the Taoiseach joins 30 heads of state or government, including President Clinton and Russian Prime Minister Mr Sergei Stepashin…

As the Taoiseach joins 30 heads of state or government, including President Clinton and Russian Prime Minister Mr Sergei Stepashin, in Sarajevo tomorrow for a summit meeting to promote democratic reform, investment and stability in the Balkan region, spare a thought for Montenegro.

Montenegro is stunningly beautiful, with plenty of sun, sea, mountains, rivers, lakes and dense forests. It is on the Adriatic Sea and has land borders with Albania, Serbia, Bosnia and Croatia. Conscious of its natural beauty and resources, it has declared itself "an ecological state" and article 19 of its constitution provides that "everyone shall have the right to a healthy environment and shall be entitled to timely and complete information on its state. Everyone has a duty to preserve and promote the environment".

The population is about 650,000 and, in addition, it accommodates possibly up to 200,000 displaced persons from neighbouring countries. The political capital is Podgorica, formerly Titograd, and Irish people may remember holidaying in places like Saint Steven, Budna and Ulcing before the troubles of the past decade.

Montenegro and Serbia, in an allegedly equal relationship, constitute the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, presided over by Slobodan Milosevic, the indicted war criminal. The relationship between Serbia and Montenegro has broken down and there is no contact between them.

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Montenegro's President Milo Djukanovic, pro-democracy and pro-West, was formerly a protege of Mr Milosevic but now has no contact with him. All the recent actions taken by Mr Milosevic have been taken without consultation with Montenegro, despite written agreements and the Yugoslav constitution. The only connection that remains is the threatening presence in Montenegro of a significant Yugoslav military garrison loyal to Mr Milosevic, who also retains important personal contacts in the place.

Montenegro has suffered and continues to suffer badly because of its federation with Serbia. It was bombed by NATO during the recent strikes and its main airport, at Podgorica, is out of action.

The economy, overwhelmingly linked with that of Serbia, has collapsed. It continues to be hit by international sanctions designed to hurt Mr Milosevic.

Meanwhile, Mr Djukanovic tries to get on with building democracy and creating a zone of stability. The main minorities in Montenegro, Serbs, Muslims and Albanians, are represented in parliament and included in an impressively effective power-sharing government. Mr Djukanovic personally presides over a council for safeguarding minority rights and the promotion of inter-ethnic relations.

Against that background, one would have thought that Montenegro could rely on active Western support, especially from the EU and the US. Mr Djukanovic is under considerable domestic pressure to declare independence, but has been warned that he cannot necessarily rely on Western support if he does. He knows that without such support he would risk the massive and bloody intervention of Mr Milosevic. The courageous Montenegrins would clearly be no match for Serbia which, with a population of eight million, would quickly overwhelm them.

Montenegro is receiving sympathetic signals from the West, but little else. On the one hand, it is being encouraged to stay in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and wait for the better days that will follow Mr Milosevic's departure. Some Western voices are even encouraging Montenegro to become part of a movement to overthrow Mr Milosevic - an unrealistic notion given the relative positions of Serbia and Montenegro.

On the other hand, the Montenegrins are being actively discouraged from declaring independence and are being told there is neither Western appetite nor military resources for any further Balkan intervention.

A senior US diplomat is even reported to have reminded Mr Djukanovic that the Hungarians who revolted against Moscow in 1956 wrongly assumed they would get Western help.

So what can the West do? What, if anything, should Ireland do? On the economic front, the Montenegrins should be given massive aid by the EU and the US. In particular, the cost of dealing with the huge number of displaced persons should be borne by the West.

Minister of State Ms Liz O'Donnell might have a look at her budget to see if there is anything she can do. Mr Djukanovic has effective and reliable channels for absorbing assistance.

The package which will hopefully emerge from Sarajevo this week should include something substantial for Montenegro.

At the moment, it has enormous difficulty even paying for its water supplies from neighbouring countries and paying the foreign banks which are financing the electricity generating stations.

Ireland should use its voice, in the EU and elsewhere, to ensure Montenegro does not continue to suffer. If the West is not prepared to back and defend an independent Montenegro, the least it might do is not continue to punish it because of the theoretical federal links. The Montenegrins deserve to be rewarded for their political courage and their skill in managing an extremely tricky situation under the menacing shadow of Mr Milosevic. They are saving the West, at least for the moment, from having to deal with another Kosovo and another Bosnia.

Sean Donlon is a former secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs. He has recently been in Montenegro for discussions on the organisation of its foreign affairs.