This week the “Doomsday Clock” was set closer to midnight than ever.
Russian nuclear threats following that country’s invasion of Ukraine, growing tensions in other parts of the world, military applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and a worsening climate crisis were cited as factors pushing us to global catastrophe.
The symbolic clock is set at 89 seconds before midnight – the theoretical point of annihilation – a second closer than last year.
Who sets the Doomsday Clock?
It is set by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, an independent, non-profit organisation based in the United States and run by eminent scientists. Advice is provided by 10 Nobel laureates.
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It was created in 1947 amid cold-war tensions following the second World War to warn the public about how close humankind was to destroying the world. Its brief has broadened since to include other threats.
Does this annual ritual matter?
It may be dismissed as theatre, but the process of setting the clock is the outcome of thorough risk analysis.
Fundamentally, it serves to concentrate minds on planetary threats. Of late, turbulent geopolitics underlines lack of room to manoeuvre so close to midnight. A wrong move – intended or by accident – could short-circuit a move to catastrophe.
What forced the dial closer to annihilation time?
The factors shaping this year’s decision were not new in 2024. “But we have seen insufficient progress in addressing key challenges, and in many cases this is leading to increasingly negative and worrisome effects,” warned Daniel Holz, chair of the Bulletin’s science and security board.
The usual frank commentary is provided: “The 2025 clock time signals that the world is on a course of unprecedented risk, and that continuing on the current path is a form of madness. The United States, China and Russia have the prime responsibility to pull the world back from the brink. The world depends on immediate action.”
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine launched Europe’s bloodiest conflict since the second World War. “The war in Ukraine continues to loom as a large source of nuclear risk. That conflict could escalate to include nuclear weapons at any moment due to a rash decision or through accident and miscalculation,” Prof Holz said.
The Middle East has been another source of instability, with the Israel-Gaza war and regional hostilities involving countries including Iran. China has stepped up military pressure near Taiwan. Nuclear-armed North Korea continues with tests of ballistic missiles.
Last year was the hottest in recorded history due to human-induced carbon emissions. “While there has been impressive growth in wind and solar energy, the world is still falling short of what is necessary to prevent the worst aspects of climate change,” Prof Holz said.
Not only is the Doomsday Clock closest to end point, it is ticking more loudly than ever before.
