The latest greenhouse gas projections add up to a definitive assessment of where we are along the road to a decarbonised economy. It is clear that there are no hiding places for the Government or sectors responsible for the most carbon pollution.
The data has emerged from an exhaustive and complex process of determining the levels of carbon emissions across the Irish economy. This enables the Environmental Protection Agency - on behalf of the EU - to confirm trends that are then modelled for years to come.
It makes predictions largely based on two scenarios. The first is nailed-down measures committed to by government and in place with a strong amount of certainty. The second relates to actions in climate plans with a realistic implementation pathway. The latter is the most optimistic scenario.
The latest iteration for 2024 (and running out to 2055) brings little comfort to any party. Ireland, the EU and the world needs to halve emissions by 2030 to contain global warming driven by carbon emissions and burning fossil fuels.
Bono: Stories of Surrender review: A punch-to-the-guts stage show once you get past the Bono-ness of it all
Look inside: Rathmichael home offers rarified retreat in serene, sylvan setting for €3.25m
Restaurant review: There’s a confidence here that doesn’t need translating. Someone has thought through each element
‘Waking up in hell’: Family subject to mistaken Dublin arson attack told ‘it wasn’t meant for youse’
Ireland is now projected to achieve a reduction of just 23 per cent, at best, in total emissions by 2030. The national target for 2030 is 51 per cent. Last year, a 29 per cent reduction was projected. The picture is made worse due to more reliable data from Government departments.
In most cases there is some progress, yet all major sectors - agriculture, electricity, buildings and transport - are on a trajectory to exceed sectoral emissions ceilings for 2025 and 2030. Power generation using renewables (wind and solar) – critical to electrifying the economy - is closest to target.
In too many places, emissions continue to rise or are going down only marginally rather than achieving downward momentum. Figures on land use are particularly concerning. While not the worst offender, its emissions are predicted to rise by 95 per cent by 2030. This is mostly due to the age of forestry that must be harvested and is exacerbated by not enough trees being planted. It has been described as “a carbon cliff”.
Land should be a giant carbon store rather than being an ever-rising emitter. A land-use report commissioned by the Government, which was due to be published in the first quarter of 2025, will be critical in getting the balance right.
Carbon budgets, supposedly to impose discipline on amounts of carbon that can be expended, are going to be exceeded in all scenarios. A key EU “effort sharing” target is woefully short of what was committed to under headings such as “transport”, “agriculture” and “waste”.
Within Government, the yawning gap between ambition and reality will be concentrating minds. It also has to wrestle with escalating energy demand, notably from data centres, and the likelihood of an associated rise in natural gas use: ie, even more emissions.
But most worrying will be what all this adds up to in compliance costs in less than five years. 2030 will be the reckoning day when purchases of “emissions allocations” from other EU member states will be required to atone for our carbon sins.
The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and Climate Change Advisory Council estimated that could add up to a worst-case €26 billion. If the State follows through on its “ambitious” climate plan, this would reduce potential costs by more than half, to between €8 billion and €12 billion. The latest projections indicate the bill will be towards the higher end.
The timing could not be worse given geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs and the possibility of trade wars as Ireland faces into economic turbulence, with all ministers locked into “limited budget” constraints.
In response to 2024 projections, climatologist Prof John Sweeney highlighted a failure to take the legally required action to curtail our emissions could cost us the equivalent of two children‘s hospitals. A year later, that is probably three children‘s hospitals, when the money would be better spent on building climate resilience and moving more quickly to realise the multiple benefits of a decarbonised society.
