Some 51 per cent of third-level applicants have received their first choice following the first round of offers from the Central Admissions Office (CAO).
The majority of applicants (80 per cent) were offered one of their top three preferences.
However, random selection has been used for some 25 courses in high demand this year, two of which require the maximum 625 points, meaning some students who achieved maximum grades have missed out on their first preferences.
These courses are dental science, management science and information systems studies at Trinity College Dublin.
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Places on courses such as dentistry and occupational therapy at University College Cork and medicine and pharmacy at the University of Galway have also been allocated through the lottery system.
Minister for Further and Higher Education James Lawless said on Wednesday that the random selection process is “very fair”.
“What would be unfair would be some kind of human intervention to nudge one student above another. It’s very fair - it’s not desirable, it’s not preferable but as a lottery system, it’s probably the least worst way to do it at the moment,” he said, describing the process as “arbitrary.”
He added that the courses allocated by random selection are less than two per cent of the entire course load.
“So, while my heart goes out to a student in that situation that might have worked so hard, and ultimately have their choice determined by random selection, it is a very small cohort.
“I’m very sympathetic to them and ultimately the goal is to increase supply but there’s 98 per cent of students not facing that dilemma.”
The minister added that points requirements are “actually quite stable” this year, describing universities which saw increases for two-thirds of courses as “bubbles in the system.”
Despite expectations among some in the sector that points might stabilise or even decrease as a result of a lowering of grade inflation this year, some universities have seen points requirements rise for two-thirds of courses.
About 52 per cent of grades were artificially inflated this year, down from 68 per cent in 2024 in the first stage of a gradual phasing out of postmarking adjustment.
However, there were 89,347 CAO applications made this year, up seven per cent from the 83,543 applications in 2024, with increased demand largely thought to have counteracted the lowering grades.
The number of applicants receiving their first preference fell this year from 56 per cent in 2024, while the number securing one of their top three choices fell from 83 per cent.
At Trinity College Dublin, where 60 per cent of applicants received their first preference, cut-off points rose by an average of 9.6 points, with the college saying the downward adjustment in grade inflation was “offset by a significant increase in demand”.
While the number of courses requiring more than 600 points fell from eight to seven, points requirements rose for two-thirds of its single honours level eight degrees, including general nursing (+31) and history (+27).
Some 11,233 students listed a Trinity course as their first preference, up 12 per cent from the 10,015 in 2024, with the college making a record 4,059 offers, up from 3,897.
Trinity’s vice-provost Orla Sheils, who has previously described random selection as a “cruel arbiter”, said while the reduction in the uplift in Leaving Cert grades is welcome, “it is regrettable that the effects of this gradual unwinding will continue for a number of years to come.”
The use of random selection was required for six courses at Trinity, including the two which require the maximum 625 points.
“The reality is that some courses are extremely competitive. There is really no fair way of solving the problem when students present on equal marks,” Ms Sheils said.
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While the random selection approach has been a feature since before the Covid-19 pandemic, it has “clearly been exacerbated by the grade inflation of recent years,” she said.
Leaving Cert results remain far above pre-pandemic levels, making it difficult for colleges to choose between top candidates and resulting in the increasing use of random selection.
“On a positive note, additional places have been added in some healthcare courses this year and all universities are doing what they can to accommodate as many students as possible,” she said.
Ms Sheils added that it remains to be seen if there has been an impact on points from re-applications through the CAO from students who sat their Leaving Cert in previous years.
The majority of the almost 20,000 applicants who sat their exams in previous years did so since 2020, and received a higher level of grade inflation when compared to this year’s candidates.
At University College Dublin (UCD), which more than 10,700 students listed as their first preference, points requirements rose for 21 of its courses, with all programmes now requiring at least 400 points.
The highest increase was for general nursing, which jumped 34 points from 410 last year.
Like last year, economics and finance has the highest points requirement at 625, followed by actuarial and financial studies at 613, which also remains unchanged.
However, just one course (biomedical, health and life sciences) has used random selection for the first round of offers, the college said.
Random selection has also been used at the University of Galway, where points requirements jumped for two-thirds of its courses across all major subject areas.
Its degree in medicine, which requires 728 points (including Hpat) and its new course in pharmacy (601 points) have used random selection this year.
