On Wednesday, Donald Trump blinked and financial markets, along with much of the wider world, breathed a sigh of relief. It would, however, be overly optimistic to think the danger has passed with the United States president’s decision to postpone tariffs on imports for 90 days. Not least because the world’s two largest economies remain locked in a titanic trade war.
As China Correspondent Denis Staunton points out in his Beijing Letter, the Chinese remain uniquely defiant in the face of Trump’s threats and show little intention of backing down in the tit-for-tat tariff battle. Where things go from here is far from clear. Arthur Beesley offers a timely recap on how we got to this point as well as where things might go next and, crucially, what it might mean for Ireland. It’s a sobering read.
It will be extremely difficult for the European Union and the US to reach a trade deal in the next three months, he believes, not least because Trump hopes to land deals all over the world at the same time. Trade deals usually take years, not months, to negotiate. The bona fides of the US president are also an issue given his erratic behaviour.
The reasons behind Trump’s dramatic volte face are explored in some detail by Cliff Taylor here. He has little time for the White House narrative that the U-turn was part of the plan all along and argues that the game was up once the turmoil in the stock markets caused by the sweeping tariffs announced on April 2nd spread into the bond market on which the US relies to raise funds.
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Having predicted this would the case, David McWilliams takes a lap of honour in his column this week but is far from sanguine about the disruption unleashed by the White House. “The system will recalibrate, but it will not be the same as it was before all this chaos. Buckle up,” he warns.
It is clear at this stage that rupture in the postwar relationship between the US and its hitherto closest allies will see a reset in relationships globally. Two pieces look at what shape this might take: Jack Power, our correspondent in Brussels, notes that in the search for new friends to trade with, the European Commission has turned to South America, where it hopes to finally get the long-stalled Mercosur trade deal over the line. Newton Emerson explores the threat to the Windsor Framework of the proposed new trade deal between the UK and the US.
It’s not over yet.
Ruadhán Mac Cormaic
Editor
Five Key Reads
- Since the release of Adolescence on Netflix a month ago, there have been plenty of discussions about young people and their internet usage. Conor Gallagher asks the question: Are adolescent boys being influenced by online misogyny and porn to commit sexual assaults?
- Health Correspondent Shauna Bowers has been following the spinal surgeries report this week. Here, she looks at the story behind it all.
- This week, Ciara Mangan welcomed the court ruling rejecting her rapist’s appeal. Kitty Holland spoke to her about the toll the ordeal took on her over a two year period.
- Stephen Farrell this week looked at Ireland’s rural brothel network and how Brazilian man Ilamar Rodrigues Ribeiro, who was jailed for nine years last month, ran brothels in nine towns in rural Ireland.
- And, lastly, Cliff Taylor looks at the week that was with Donald Trump and what it all means.
In this week’s On the Money newsletter, Dominic Coyle writes about Local Property Tax and what it all means. Sign up here to receive the newsletter straight to your inbox every Friday.
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