In the last Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, published four months ago in December, I commented that Fianna Fail had good reason to be very happy with its performance in 1997.
The party had formed the new Government, having achieved the highest ever ratio of seats to votes in the June election; its nominee had won the presidential election having led throughout the campaign; and at year end the party was sitting on 50 per cent support, with Government satisfaction very high at 65 per cent.
Over the past two years, since formal negotiations on the Northern Ireland peace process began, and to some extent for many years before that, it was always on the cards that if and when a final agreement was signed the Taoiseach of the day would benefit considerably, both politically and personally.
While this certainly materialised, the situation now, in terms of standard MRBI criteria, is that Bertie Ahern's personal rating and that of his Government and party are at an all-time high among the Irish electorate. And it is clear from the survey figures that the Taoiseach's contribution to the agreement's successful conclusion, when also faced with a personal bereavement, is fully appreciated by the people of Ireland and, very significantly, by majorities across all political parties.
From MRBI records, the current Fianna Fail support level of 57 per cent (based on 49 per cent core) represents an all-time high for a party in government. In June 1992, just before the referendum on the Maastricht Treaty, Fianna Fail in government was on 53 per cent. However, in the general election five months later party support dropped to an all-time low of 39 per cent.
The main message, therefore, from the current figure is that it has the capacity to change and to be influenced by events as they develop over time. The overall support levels relative to the last opinion poll in December are:
Fianna Fail - Net: 57% (April 98), 50% (Dec 97), Core: 49% (April 98), 44% (Dec 97)
Fine Gael - Net: 20% (April 98), 26% (Dec 97), Core: 18% (April 98), 23% (Dec 97)
Labour - Net: 11% (April 98), 13% (Dec 97), Core: 10% (April 98), 11% (Dec 97)
Sinn Fein - Net: 4% (April 98), 1% (Dec 97), Core: 3% (April 98), 1% (Dec 97)
Prog Democrats - Net: 3% (April 98), 3% (Dec 97), Core: 3% (April 98), 3% (Dec 97)
Green Party - Net: 2% (April 98), 2% (Dec 97), Core: 2% (April 98), 1% (Dec 97)
Democratic Left - Net: 1% (April 98), 2% (Dec 97), Core: 1% (April 98), 2% (Dec 97)
Others - - Net: 2% (April 98), 3% (Dec 97), Core: 1% (April 98), 3% (Dec 97)
Undecided - Net: - (April 98), - (Dec 97), Core: 13% (April 98), 12% (Dec 97)
These overall figures indicate that Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein have been the main beneficiaries, with Fine Gael losing six points since the December poll. In more specific demographic terms, a closer analysis shows that Fianna Fail has gained support significantly in urban areas, primarily among middle-class, married electors of both sexes.
Time will show the extent to which new loyalties will remain or revert back, and with no general election on the horizon the extent of movement and volatility will become evident as further opinion polls are undertaken. It is relevant, therefore, to comment that the current figures may have no relationship whatsoever to those in the next general election.
The lessons of the last six months of 1992 should not be forgotten.
The current satisfaction level with the Government on 73 per cent per cent also represents an all-time high, and is eight points above the then high December figure. Of greatest significance in my opinion is that highest levels of satisfaction are evident among middle-class older people, where satisfaction levels are 78 per cent, while almost seven in every 10 of Fine Gael, Labour and Progressive Democrats supporters are also satisfied. The Fianna Fail figure is 85 per cent.
The current satisfaction levels of the various party leaders relative to the December poll are:
Bertie Ahern - 84% (April 84), 74% (Dec 97)
Mary Harney - 63% (April 84), 60% (Dec 97)
Ruairi Quinn - 58% (April 84), 57% (Dec 97)
John Bruton - 56% (April 84), 50% (Dec 97)
P. De Rossa - 50% (April 84), 50% (Dec 97)
Mr Ahern's satisfaction level of 84 per cent also represents an all-time high, and is seen as such by 95 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters. Again very significantly, his ratings among supporters of the other main parties are in the high 70s, which represents very substantial backing over the crucial weeks between now and the agreement referendum.
Finally, a word on some misinterpretations relative to yesterday's poll on the peace agreement. It is quite incorrect to describe current voting intentions in the referendum as "predicting that it will be carried". The survey was conducted last Tuesday, April 14th, and relates to intentions on that day.
The next crucial five weeks have yet to be travelled, and new indicators will emerge as the campaign develops. A number of commentators have drawn attention to the fact that the NI figure of 73 per cent who intend to vote "Yes in favour of the Agreement" is higher than that in the Republic.
It is relevant to be aware that the questions asked in each jurisdiction were not identical. Both questions were published in Table B yesterday, the main variable being that the question here included the issue of actually amending Articles 2 & 3, while that in Northern Ireland mentioned that there would be reform of the Republic's claim in Articles 2 & 3.