Ahern suspects there's a way, but only if there's a will

The Taoiseach is determined to try and solve the EU's trickiest problem - the impasse over the draft constitutional treaty, reports…

The Taoiseach is determined to try and solve the EU's trickiest problem - the impasse over the draft constitutional treaty, reports Denis Staunton, European Correspondent.

Bertie Ahern and Romano Prodi sought to accentuate the positive yesterday after their meeting in Dublin Castle. A senior Commission official said that the issue of a two-speed Europe, which prompted the Taoiseach to rebuke Mr Prodi at the weekend, was not mentioned during the meeting.

"There was no unpleasantness whatsoever; it was all smiles," he said.

At the press conference following the meeting, the two men played down their differences, stressing that they both favoured an early conclusion of negotiations on the constitutional treaty. Mr Ahern issued the strongest signal yet of his determination to conclude a deal during the Irish Presidency, although he acknowledged that it was first necessary to establish if there was enough political will in the EU to find agreement.

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The Taoiseach's strategy is to focus on the most difficult issue to resolve - the introduction of a new voting system in the Council of Ministers, where national governments meet. Spain and Poland want to retain the system of weighted votes agreed at Nice, while France and Germany demand a voting system based on population size.

Mr Ahern will hold "intensive consultations" with all EU governments during the next few weeks, starting with talks in Dublin with Belgium's Mr Guy Verhofstadt tomorrow and a meeting in Berlin on Friday with Germany's Chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schröder. Describing his approach as "proactive", the Taoiseach said he would make every effort to build consensus as soon as possible.

Mr Ahern noted that a fresh sense of engagement in the constitutional project has overtaken the disappointment generated by the failure of last month's Brussels summit. The search for agreement will be made more urgent by the start later this month of the lengthy process of agreeing the EU's budget for the period from 2007 to 2013.

On January 25th, the Commission will publish a paper proposing a new budget architecture for the EU, focusing resources on making Europe more economically competitive. Mr Prodi said yesterday that the Commission would show that funds channelled through the EU are more effective at generating growth than national spending projects. "There is an added value to resources spent at a European level," he said.

Six EU countries have already called for the EU budget to be capped at 1 per cent of Europe's GDP, a move that would mean that a Union of 25 states would have to operate on about the same budget as the present Union of 15. Mr Prodi warned that it would be impossible for the EU to fulfil the goals agreed by European leaders on so limited a budget.

The Commission wants to adapt the EU budget to the goal set out in the Lisbon Strategy, to make Europe the most competitive economy in the world by 2010. During yesterday's meeting between the Commission and the Cabinet, the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, suggested that the EU should seek to become more competitive, even if it could not become the world's most competitive region.

Mr Prodi said that the accession of 10 new member-states in May creates an opportunity for unprecedented progress in productivity, particularly if Europe invests in human capital.

The debate over the budget is likely to be deeply divisive, however, and will become more bitter as it progresses. This is one reason why the Taoiseach believes it is necessary to move as quickly as possible to resolve the constitutional impasse.

Another motivation for moving negotiations on lies in the danger that, in the absence of progress towards agreement, talk of a two-speed Europe will become more animated. As Mr Prodi repeated his warning that some countries will move ahead of the rest if the constitutional talks fail, the Taoiseach claimed that the EU's enhanced co-operation procedures offered enough scope for closer co-operation.

It is clear, however, that those who aspire to a two-speed Europe will not be satisfied with the flexible alliances that enhanced co-operation envisages. They want to create a union of states within the EU, perhaps with separate institutions to co-ordinate their policies more closely than EU rules demand.

Such an alliance within the Union is likely to agree positions on many policy issues in advance of EU ministerial meetings, commanding a formidable number of votes under any voting system.

The Taoiseach's approach to the constitutional talks, described by Mr Prodi yesterday as one of "discretion and determination", acknowledges that an agreement may not be possible during the next six months. Ireland's EU Presidency will not be judged a failure if a constitutional treaty is not agreed before the end of June, but it cannot be a complete success unless Mr Ahern revives the momentum behind the search for compromise.