CAO points requirements for some of the most popular degree courses in arts and business are set to fall significantly this year.
With Leaving Cert results due on Wednesday, education sources say the points required for a range of computer and related technology courses will also fall.
It is expected that CAO points for a general arts degree will fall from about 380 points to 360 in some colleges. An average 20-point fall is also expected in most business courses. But, in a reversal of the overall trend, points for medicine and related areas are expected to increase after strong demand for places on these courses.
The expected decline in college points for most courses comes after the number applying to the CAO fell for the first time this year from 62,500 to 60,000. Overall, applications to the seven universities are down by 5 per cent.
In some colleges, applications for computer and engineering courses are down by over 10 per cent. This is very good news for students, but less encouraging for the Government and industry, which have been seeking to rekindle declining student interest in these key areas.
Admissions offices from third-level colleges are due to meet in Galway next Friday to consider the Leaving results. CAO points figures for the coming academic year will be published next Monday.
CAO figures which show an unprecedented decline in applications include:
r Arts and social science (down 3 per cent)
r Business (down 7 per cent)
r Agriculture (down 5 per cent).
These areas could see a corresponding decline in points requirements. Admission officers expect an overall decline of at least 2 per cent across the board and a significantly greater decline in areas such as arts and computers.
Sources say that, while the new figures would make little difference to high-points courses such as medicine and law, they could have a dramatic impact on those courses which have struggled to fill places in recent years.
These include computer and IT courses in some institutes of technology. As it is, many of the institutes now accept "all qualified applicants" for many courses provided they have the minimum entry requirement, usually five passes in the Leaving Cert exam.
Broadly, CAO points will tumble for most courses because fewer students are chasing more and more courses. As one admission officer put it: "Supply is much higher than demand."
In recent years there has been a boom in the number of courses on offer to students. Almost 800 courses are available in more than 40 third-level colleges. This compares to just 50 courses in seven colleges less than 20 years ago.
This year is seen as the first when the sharp decline in the numbers taking the Leaving Cert will be reflected in lower CAO points. Until now, the decline in school-leavers has been offset by an increase in mature students.
Applications for medicine are continuing to buck the overall trend. Demand for places on medicine courses have risen by 14 per cent, pharmacy by 9 per cent and healthcare by 7 per cent.
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