IRAN: A decision to exclude reformist candidates from the polls in Iran may be creating its most serious crisis since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, writes Michael Jansen.
The power struggle between parliament and the Council of Guardians , which has ebbed and flowed in Tehran for several weeks, is considered by some analysts to be the most serious crisis in Iran since the Islamic Revolution ousted the Shah in 1979.
Reformists argue that the council has not simply excluded random applicants for failing to have "Islamic" credentials but has also adopted a carefully considered strategy for excluding liberals and progressives from parliament. The council, they say, has barred them from standing in 190 of the 290 constituencies, giving approved conservative candidates an unfair advantage.
Since the council issued its exclusion orders, some 500 cases have been reversed but it is unlikely that the council will be able to complete a review of the majority of the 3,100 remaining before the short election campaign begins on February 12th, particularly since the three-day Muslim Feast of Sacrifice begins on the 2nd and cuts into the time the council would have to review barred candidates.
Although Iran's Supreme Guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, asked the council to accelerate reconsideration of the mass exclusions, the 12-member body of conservative jurists and Islamic scholars seems to be determined to stick to its hardline stance.
The council is seeking to prevent a repeat of the 2000 poll which gave reformists 70 per cent of the seats in the majlis. Ayatollah Khamenei, who appoints the council, is unlikely to press it hard on this issue as he shares its objectives.
He has appealed to all political groups to remain calm and mount only legal protests. However, observers do not expect widespread popular demonstrations.
The Iranian public is deeply disillusioned by the reformists who promised political reform, democracy, social liberalisation and economic advancement when President Khatami took office in 1997 and again before the 2000 parliamentary election.
Although the reformists loosened the grip the conservatives have on the society and launched a vigorous debate on the governance of the country, the conservatives blocked 111 of 295 reformist bills, shut down dozens of liberal newspapers and arrested journalists and politicians.
Having enjoyed a taste of freedom, the public blames not only the conservatives for blocking change but also the reformists for failing to deliver.
The conservatives believe that voter alienation and apathy and the absence of a real electoral contest could lead to a low turn-out on polling day. This favours their candidates rather than reformists who count on mass support.