The Republic’s crime data has mirrored the ebb and flow of the economy. Just as the economy is recovering, crime trends are also beginning to stir upwards once again.
There is nothing in the latest data on recorded crime, released by the Central Statistics Office yesterday, that will cause anyone in political or policing circles to panic. Figures for some crime categories are continuing to fall, and even in areas where the frequency of offences has increased in the past 12 months, the rises are modest.
But coming as they do after five or six years of sustained decline, they are not insignificant. In the second quarter of last year, there were 22 murders, as against 29 in the same period this year. Kidnapping offences increased from 19 to 28 and carjackings were up from 12 to 33.
There are also signs that the drugs trade, and the gun crime that accompanies it, are beginning to recover just as the disposable incomes of recreational drug users are stabilising and growing.
For example, in 2008 some 23,404 drugs offences were recorded. This has fallen every year since, reaching 15,384 last year, a drop of 34 per cent.
However, the latest crime data reveals that those falls have now stopped. And the level of overall drug crime increased by 2 per cent in the 12 months to the end of June, compared with the previous corresponding period.
Possession of drugs for sale or supply increased by 3 per cent in the year to the end of June, possession of drugs for personal use was up 2 per cent, and cases in which criminals were caught trying to import drugs jumped by 28 per cent, albeit from a low base of 32 offences.
Detecting drug crime
All of these increases are significant because they usually only take place when the Garda commits resources to detecting drug crime, from raiding clubs and music festivals to increasing searches on the streets or using undercover gardaí to buy drugs from dealers. In short, if you have the resources to look for drug crime, you will find it; if you do not look, recorded drug crime should drop.
However, manpower in the Garda is continuing to fall and membership is now below 13,000 for the first time in five years. If more resources were available again, the increase in recorded drug crime would not consequently be much larger than the increases that have now just begun to emerge.
Similarly, while those gun crimes that require extra resources to detect remain low and are still falling, others that do not require resources to detect have increased.
For example, the crime of illegally discharging a firearm has increased by 6 per cent in the year to the end of June, following falls each year since 2008. Anecdotally, multimillion euro drug seizures are becoming more frequent and their value is nudging ever higher. This suggests that drug gangs are trying to feed higher demand and once again have the cash reserves to buy large shipments.
Last week some 100 new recruits entered the Garda College in Templemore, the first class since a recruitment moratorium began five years ago. While the latest crime data should not lead to alarm, the case for recruitment to be moved back to pre-recession levels is hidden in the figures.