Nigel Dodds frequently acts like an FF man as he canvasses White City, writes Frank McNally.North Belfast
Like bright evenings and the sound of the cuckoo, the smell of petrol bombs heralds the arrival of spring in North Belfast. The promise of summer is more of a threat in this constituency of front lines, where the political geography changes every few streets, and which claimed two in five of all casualties of the Troubles. This is Northern Ireland writ small, with the constitutional argument played out nightly along 20 different interfaces, often in the form of stones and Molotov cocktails.
But as DUP workers canvass the White City estate on Tuesday evening, it seems a pleasant enough place to live. The houses in this Protestant neighbourhood are well kept. Beyond them, the wooded slopes of Cave Hill - home to judges and barristers - look inviting, and the apartment blocks under construction above us suggest that Belfast's new middle classes are climbing, at least socially. Only the 25-foot-high fence surrounding White City hints this is an area under siege - although in fairness to the DUP canvassers, they remind The Irish Times at every opportunity.
In between the talk of constant attacks, however, Nigel Dodds MP also stresses the positives. "When you mention White City, people say 'ooh! That's where all the trouble is'. But residents are getting on with their lives here too, as you can see."
The doorsteps bear him out. In many respects he could be a Fianna Fáil canvasser, as he greets constituents by first names, touches arms and asks discreetly: "You know what to do for us on polling day?" Some of the replies are more conclusive than others - "You got me this house!" says one woman, smiling - but none is negative.
"You can see it's not all about the constitutional issue, and hoisting the flag," says Dodds, as the canvass moves on to the next estate. But the constitutional issue is never too far from the DUP's thoughts. The campaign literature warns "Keep North Belfast Unionist" - a lightly coded message to UUP supporters that splitting the unionist vote (55 per cent and shrinking) could hand the seat to Sinn Féin.
His wife, Diane, blames the Tricolours on nearby Whitewell Road for some of the tensions in the area. And when Dodds greets one friend and supporter, a brief flash of triumphalism breaks through. "We're winning, Robin! Have you ever seen republicans under so much pressure?"
In North Belfast, the middle ground is under even more pressure. Both the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP will be hoping for a rebound in this election, although the UUP has a lot further to recover. Dodds would have beaten it anyway in 2001, but in Cecil Walker - an old-school unionist who didn't excel in either constituency work or media appearances - he was blessed by his opponent. This time around, he faces Fred Cobain, a seasoned performer whose working-class roots give his party much-needed street cred.
The SDLP's Alban Maginness will hope that events of recent months dissuade floating nationalist voters from supporting Sinn Féin. There are up to 3,000 such people, he believes, who might have thought republicans had "turned the corner" and now think otherwise. Even 2,000 of these could be enough to restore him to the position of North Belfast's leading nationalist politician.
But the man currently holding that title, Gerry Kelly, did not appear under too much pressure yesterday while canvassing in New Lodge. Instead of Cave Hill, the neighbourhood here is overlooked by seven 13-storey towers, formerly the Artillery Flats, where the rooftop British army observation posts have now been replaced by monuments to the hunger strikers. But the themes are broadly the same as on the DUP canvass: deprivation, lack of housing, communities under siege. One of the local election candidates accompanying him reports that a nationalist housing estate beside White City had been attacked the night before. Kelly speaks ruefully of the marching season to come.
He mentions youth suicide as a particular problem in North Belfast - in one house we pass, two young people took their lives. He talks of encouraging local people to get involved in cross-community work. "I can't really do it because I'm a hate figure," he adds, matter-of-factly. And when he praises certain unionist politicians for their work on the ground, he quickly adds that the comment is off the record, because "it wouldn't do [ those politicians] any good to be praised by me."
He and Nigel Dodds occupy parallel universes, but after the election, he expects negotiations with the Rev Ian Paisley's party to begin anew. For all its rhetoric, he says, the DUP is being careful not to rule out talks completely - "even Sammy Wilson".
Despite the current "patriarchal" leadership, Kelly insists, the DUP is not a monolith. "There are few things inevitable, especially in this long conflict. But the inevitability is that we will be back in negotiations sooner or later, and it will be with the DUP. They have to get used to that."