Assembly election predictions:Polling day tomorrow, so it's that time of the campaign when a journalist must make new-found political enemies by forecasting how it will look when all the votes are counted - about lunchtime on Friday, we hope.
In broad terms the result should turn out something like this: DUP winning between 34 and 38; Ulster Unionist Party between 20 and 23; Sinn Féin between 25 and 28; SDLP between 16 and 21; Alliance between two and seven; PUP and Robert McCartney's UK Unionist Party between none and one; and Independents between none and two. The result of the Assembly elections in 2003 were: DUP, 30; UUP, 27; Sinn Féin, 24; SDLP, 18; Alliance, six; UKUP, one; PUP, one; Independent, one.
When the Transitional Assembly was dissolved at the end of January this year the figures - with UUP defections to the DUP and Paul Berry resigning from the DUP - were: DUP, 32; UUP, 24; Sinn Féin, 24; SDLP, 18; Alliance, six; UKUP, one; PUP, one; Independents, two.
By close of play on Friday I think it will look like this: DUP, 36; UUP, 23; Sinn Féin, 25; SDLP, 19; Alliance, three; UKUP, one; and Independents (Dr Kieran Deeny), one.
Constituency by constituency this is how I figure it:
West Belfast
Gerry Adams's constituency, where Sinn Féin is aiming for five seats, whether at the expense of DUP or SDLP. But to achieve that its vote management must be beyond superb. While there are DUP concerns about unionist turnout, one imagines that Shankill unionists would be sufficiently energised to puncture Mr Adams's local ambitions. Should also be enough SDLP votes to ensure return of Alex Attwood.
Prediction: Sinn Féin, four; SDLP, one; DUP, one. As was.
North Belfast
Likelihood is the status quo although Nigel Dodds hopes his vote-pulling power can gain third and extra seat for DUP at expense of UUP's lone voice, Fred Cobain. The UUP man, however, is battle-hardened and should survive, with Sinn Féin still ahead of SDLP.
Prediction: DUP, two; UUP, one; Sinn Féin, two; SDLP, one. As was.
South Belfast
DUP has good chance of winning seat here from UUP. Intriguing here also whether Alliance's Anna Lo can take a seat at expense of one of SDLP's two outgoing MLAs, Alasdair McDonnell and Carmel Hanna, or Alex Maskey for SF. Not sure that Ms Lo will gain political surge to pitch her into Stormont.
Prediction: DUP, two; UUP, one; SDLP, two; Sinn Féin, one. DUP gain.
East Belfast
DUP here attempting what it could never do before, manage Peter Robinson's huge vote so that its three quotas win three seats. Target is PUP's Dawn Purvis, who has fought a valiant, well-supported campaign. She can't be written off but odds seem with DUP.
Prediction: DUP, three; UUP, two; Alliance, one. DUP gain.
North Down
Probably the most difficult constituency to call. DUP and UUP seem okay for two each, and Alliance even without Transitional Assembly speaker Eileen Bell, should be there at the last. But has Robert McCartney spread himself too wide with all this electoral multilocation? Brian Wilson is in with a chance of making a historic breakthrough for the Greens and former BBC journalist Brian Rowan could also make impact. DUP would love McCartney's scalp, but his base hasn't abandoned him so far and he should have enough fuel in the electoral tank. But anything could happen with final seats and transfers.
Prediction: DUP, two; UUP, two; Alliance, one; UKUP, one. As was.
Lagan Valley
Also a killer to figure. DUP hoping for four seats on back of Jeffrey Donaldson's four quotas in Westminster poll two years ago, which may be an ambition too far. SF's Paul Butler in with good opportunity to take SDLP seat, now that Patricia Lewsley has stood down. But he must improve on first preferences and get crucial transfers. Alliance without Seamus Close and outside chance UUP fielding strong candidates could sneak a second. Major scrap for final seats.
Prediction: DUP, three; UUP, two; Sinn Féin, one. Sinn Féin and UUP gain.
East Antrim
Don't dismiss SDLP's Danny O'Connor, but all the planets must be in alignment for him. Sammy Wilson should be OK for two colleagues with him, but poaching an additional one from UUP seems unlikely. Alliance's Seán Neeson appears safe.
Prediction: DUP, 3; UUP, 2; Alliance 1. As was.
Strangford
Iris Robinson's evangelical political zeal just might gain that extra seat for the DUP at the expense of UUP, now that Lord Kilclooney (John Taylor) has bowed out. Die in a ditch battle between outgoing Alliance MLA, Kieran McCarthy and SDLP would-be usurper Joe Boyle. SDLP man might crack it this time.
Prediction: DUP, four; UUP, one; SDLP, one. DUP and SDLP gain.
North Antrim
Ian Paisley has had big internal problems here and anti-deal unionists will cause more than a ripple of disaffection. In terms of whether DUP can hold its three seats unionists here must decide do they hate Martin McGuinness more than they revere Dr Paisley. Ballymena would never abandon Paisley, would it?
Prediction: DUP, three; UUP, one; Sinn Féin, one; SDLP, one. As was.
South Antrim
Another hard call. Will this mark the end of Alliance leader David Ford's career or do irreparable damage to Sinn Féin's Mitchel McLaughlin, parachuted in from Derry? Ford is vulnerable but unionist transfers could assist, and DUP and UUP asking their people to do their utmost to keep McLaughlin out. The spotlight on Sinn Féin and Alliance here could also undermine security of SDLP seat, but SDLP transfers just might shade it for McLaughlin.
Prediction: DUP, two; UUP, two; SDLP, one; Sinn Féin, one. Sinn Féin gain.
South Down
SDLP in Eddie McGrady's three-quota Westminster seat has great ambitions for a third here, and party continues to hold advantage over Sinn Féin. But Sinn Féin will be hard to uproot. UUP's Dermot Nesbitt not standing and party would need to beef up its vote to prevent Jim Wells causing upset and bringing in a second.
Prediction: SDLP, two; Sinn Féin, two; DUP, one; UUP, one. As was.
Upper Bann
DUP encroaching into UUP vote all the time, but would need big surge to steal a seat from Ulster Unionists. The same goes with Sinn Féin's aspirations to wipe out SDLP here.
Prediction: DUP, two; UUP, two; Sinn Féin, one; SDLP, one.
Newry and Armagh
Whether Paul Berry can hold this seat will be a test of the tolerance of unionist voters. Berry was forced to resign from DUP because of tabloid allegations about his private life. SDLP outgoing MLA Dominic Bradley and press officer Sharon Haughey hope to make headlines by taking a Sinn Féin seat. With two new candidates running with Sinn Féin MP Conor Murphy and lingering rows over deselection of Davy Hyland, running as an Independent, SDLP has real chance.
Prediction: Sinn Féin, two; SDLP, two; DUP, one; UUP, one. SDLP gain.
Mid Ulster
Prospective deputy first minister Martin McGuinness and Sinn Féin seem safe for three seats, with one each for other three main parties.
Prediction: Sinn Féin, three; SDLP, one; DUP, one; UUP, one. As was.
East Derry
Gregory Campbell is good at managing his vote and almost won three seats the last time. He has a real chance this time although presence of UKUP is a potentially damaging irritant. UUP under pressure and could be hard-pressed to hold its two, but just might see off DUP challenge, with Sinn Féin and SDLP sharing honours.
Prediction: DUP, two; UUP, two; Sinn Féin, one; SDLP, one.
Foyle
This should be the election where Mark Durkan consolidates his leadership and anchors his party. Hunger striker Patsy O'Hara's 74-year-old mother Molly will annoy Sinn Féin without inflicting damage.
Prediction: SDLP, three; Sinn Féin, two; DUP, one. As was.
West Tyrone
Independent hospitals candidate Kieran Deeny caused the upset of the election last time around by topping poll and taking the seat. But is the Tyrone hospitals issue now a busted flush, and could the failure to get top grading for Omagh hospital damage his chances? He would need to drop dramatically to lose, which if he did probably would be to Sinn Féin's advantage.
Prediction: Sinn Féin, two; SDLP, one; DUP, one; UUP, one. Independent, one. As was.
Fermanagh South-Tyrone
In 2003 it was two UUP seats to the DUP's one, but Arlene Foster's defection reversed that figure. Should be the same again this time, with Sinn Féin also holding the advantage over SDLP.
Prediction: DUP, two; UUP, one; Sinn Féin, two; SDLP, one. As was.