Voters see the alternative government as more competent on key issues, but are not yet prepared to elect them to office, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
The failure of Fine Gael and Labour to make further gains despite growing Government unpopularity was the most striking feature of part one of this opinion poll, published yesterday. The figures showed approval for the Government and the Taoiseach falling for the third consecutive poll.
Fianna Fáil support recovered by two points since June, but its 34 per cent rating would still give it its worst general election result since the 1920s.
Yet Fine Gael remained on 25 per cent and Labour on 14 per cent, the same figures they achieved last June. Back then they had gained three and two percentage points respectively to reach those figures.
Holding on to these gains represents a respectable mid-term outcome, but after several weeks in which the alternative has had a very high profile, it will have been mildly disappointing for them and leaves them short of what would be required to form a government, even with the support of the Green Party.
Today's figures, however, bring evidence of the extent of the problems the Government faces as it attempts to reverse the trend. On important issues voters regard the potential alternative coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party as being as competent as the current coalition, or more so.
Ever since 1997 when Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats came to power mid-boom, Government and Opposition parties alike have believed that voters trust the current coalition more than they do a Fine Gael/Labour alternative to manage the economy.
It was for this reason that Fianna Fáil and the PDs sought successfully to focus the 2002 general election campaign on fiscal policy proposals. It was for this reason too that in recent weeks the Government parties have claimed Fine Gael and Labour will take risks with the economy, hike up taxes and consign Ireland to Third World economic status.
Voters may have bought this argument in the past, but this latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll shows that they don't buy it now. Some 33 per cent of voters believe Fianna Fáil and the PDs would be better at managing the economy, but almost the same proportion - 31 per cent - believe Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party would be. Some 19 per cent say neither would be better and 17 per cent have no opinion.
Voters remain unconvinced by the tax scare too. Some 30 per cent think Fianna Fáil and the PDs would be best at keeping taxes low. Exactly the same proportion think Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens would be. Some 2 per cent say neither would be and 18 per cent have no opinion.
And while the traditional advantage for the Government on this issue has been neutralised, the alternative government has a clear advantage on key "quality of life" issues - the health services and childcare. And its strongest advantage is on the issue that has dominated political discourse for the last month: controlling prices.
Some 33 per cent believe the alternative would be better at improving the health services, just 25 per cent think the current combination would be better at it, 25 per cent opted for neither and 18 per cent gave no opinion.
Similarly, 33 per cent believe the Fine Gael/Labour/Green Party combination would be better at providing affordable and good quality childcare, 23 per cent believe Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats would be, 23 per cent believe neither would be and 22 per cent have no opinion.
In relation to the perception that we live in "Rip-Off Ireland" 35 per cent believe the alternative government would be better at controlling consumer prices, 23 per cent that the current coalition would be, 24 per cent that neither would be and 18 per cent have no opinion.
It is only in relation to the Northern Ireland peace process that this Government has a substantial lead. Some 40 per cent believe this combination of parties would handle the peace process better, 20 per cent that the alternative would, 19 per cent that neither would and 21 per cent have no opinion.
But while the peace process may earn the Taoiseach and his party respect and a place in the history books for their role, it will not on its own earn them a third term in government.
Government strategists believe that voters base their voting decisions on issues such as the economy, taxation and the quality of public services, rather than Northern Ireland.
The fact that voters see them as no more capable than the Opposition on any of these, and indeed see the Opposition as considerably more capable on key issues such as the health services and childcare, will be very worrying for them.
The concentration of support for the alternative government among younger and urban voters is striking.
As older voters traditionally vote in higher numbers than younger ones, Fianna Fáil and the PDs will be happy that they are the preferred option among the over 65s and are just narrowly preferred by those aged 50 - 64. However, the significant lead the alternative has among urban voters, including those in Dublin, is an important advantage, as the capital city contains a significant number of the marginal constituencies where the next election will be won or lost.
Analysis of each opinion poll this year has suggested that the next general election is there to be won by the Opposition. Government unpopularity is increasing steadily. When the rot set in for this Coalition in autumn 2002 the assessment was that there was more than four years left and things would come right for them. Now there are just 18 months to go and, apart from a short-lived upward spike in the wake of last year's socially-concerned Inchydoney retreat and Cabinet reshuffle, the poor ratings have been very consistent.
Now we can see the extent of voter disillusionment with the Government, its old advantages on economic and taxation issues gone, with Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte having apparently convinced significant numbers of voters that they can be trusted with economic management.
Their alternative is also seen as more competent to deal with the big issues of high prices, childcare and health services than the current Government.
But still voters are withholding support from these parties. The extent of voter disillusionment with the Government revealed by this poll shows the opportunity the alternative government has to win power by producing a credible, coherent vision of what it will do in government.
It is only their failure so far to do so that offers the Government hope that if it can achieve results over the next 18 months and present itself to voters as the most coherent option. It could yet rescue the situation.
Coverage of yesterday's poll was curtailed by technical difficulties.