EU to see sharp fall in working age population

EU The European Union will have 52 million fewer people of working age by 2050 as the number of citizens over 65 doubles, according…

EUThe European Union will have 52 million fewer people of working age by 2050 as the number of citizens over 65 doubles, according to projections published by Eurostat, the EU statistical agency.

The total population of the EU's 25 member states will increase slightly until 2025, mainly on account of immigration but will decline over the following 25 years. Ireland is one of the few member states that will see its population increase substantially, with the population rising by 1.5 million by 2050 - an increase of 36 per cent.

Germany's population is set to fall by 7.9 million by 2050, Italy's by 5.2 million and Poland by 4.5 million - a decrease of about 10 per cent in each case. Of the 10 countries that joined the EU last year, only Malta and Cyprus are expected to see their population increase.

The European Commission is especially concerned at the dramatic ageing of Europe's population, with those over 80 expected to account for 10 per cent of the population by 2050. The proportion of citizens over 65 is expected to rise from 16.4 per cent in 2004 to 29.9 per cent in 2050.

READ MORE

"The change is very dramatic if we keep going as we are," said Katharina von Schnurbein, a spokeswoman for the Employment and Social Affairs Commissioner, Viktor Spidla.

She said that Europe's fundamental problem was that it was not producing enough children to replace the population and that national governments took different approaches to encouraging people to have children.

France, where the population is expected to increase by almost 6 million by 2050, has introduced tax credits to encourage families to have children. In the Nordic countries, the emphasis has been on making it easier for workers to take parental leave.

"It is mainly for the member states to improve childcare facilities so that parents can better connect family and work life," Ms von Schnurbein said.

She added that attitudes needed to change if people were to feel comfortable combining parenthood with a full working life.

"People have to realise that mothers who go out to work after maternity leave are not bad mothers and that fathers who stay at home to take care of children are not weirdos."

In a Green Paper on population changes published last month, the commission estimated that the decline in the working age population could cut the EU's potential economic growth rate in half. The Lisbon Agenda, a 10-year plan to boost Europe's economic growth, calls for more action to integrate women and older people into the workforce.

The commission is cautious on the role immigrants could play in slowing down the greying of Europe. Ms von Schnurbein insisted that immigration alone could not solve the problem.

"Even if you have the present level of immigration, the working age population will decrease by more than 20 million by 2030," she said.

"This can't be compensated for by migration because it is the equivalent of two medium-sized European countries. Migration needs to be orchestrated and moderated and people need to be better integrated. Migration needs to be for the benefit of the EU."

Although yesterday's figures show the largest projected population declines in the new member states, the population is also set to fall sharply in most of the EU's biggest countries.

Among the five largest member states, only France and Britain are expected to see their population rise.

The biggest population increases are expected in Luxembourg, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta - four of the EU's smallest member states.

The prospect of further enlargement offers little cause for comfort, with Bulgaria and Romania both expected to see their population fall by 2050.

Among the candidate countries, only Turkey is expected to experience a population increase - of 19 per cent over the entire period.