Cork South West offered as eloquent a testimony to the story of the 2002 election as any constituency in the country when, despite boasting one of Fine Gael's finest electoral machines, it witnessed a dramatic slump in the party's fortunes from 44.18 to 32.33 per cent.
Following the retirement of Labour's Michael Pat Murphy in 1977, Fine Gael's Jim O'Keeffe and Paddy Sheehan held a firm grip on the constituency, winning two seats at every election throughout the 1980s and 1990s, with their support peaking in 1989 at 50.57 per cent.
Even when Fianna Fáil managed to outpoll the Fine Gael duo in first preferences as happened in 1992, O'Keeffe and Sheehan held on thanks to a strict divide of the constituency and good vote management to return yet again to Dáil Éireann.
However in 2002, Fianna Fáil achieved what it had never achieved since the establishment of the constituency in 1948, namely the return of two TDs, with Bantry-based solicitor and councillor Denis O'Donovan joining minister for agriculture Joe Walsh in the Dáil.
Five years on and Walsh has retired, leaving O'Donovan as the leading Fianna Fáil contender. He is joined on the ticket by councillor Christy O'Sullivan, whose family has strong Fianna Fáil connections but who ran in the last local and general elections as an independent.
O'Sullivan, from Clonakilty, polled a healthy 3,609 votes or 9.57 per cent as an independent in 2002 but Fianna Fáil HQ's decision to forego a convention and opt for him ahead of the party leader on Cork County Council, Alan Coleman from Belgooly, caused much anger.
It also means Fianna Fáil's two candidates are from the western half of the constituency which has an overall electorate of 61,133 and it may leave the party exposed on the eastern front, although O'Donovan has been canvassing the area in the hope of picking up votes there.
Last time, veteran Fine Gael man Paddy Sheehan from Goleen on the Mizen peninsula, lost out. Although he is 74, he is intent on regaining the seat with the party again operating a strict divide which sees him canvass west from Rosscarbery and O'Keeffe working the east.
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael opinion polls show O'Donovan and Bandon-based O'Keeffe close to the 20 per cent mark, well positioned to take the first two seats, leaving Sheehan, O'Sullivan and Labour hopeful Senator Michael McCarthy in contention for the last seat.
Also running are Sinn Féin's Cionnaith Ó Suilleabháin, a councillor from Clonakilty, and anti-GM foods campaigner Quentin Gargan for the Greens. While neither will be in contention to win a seat, their transfers will prove crucial to determining the final outcome.
The Greens did not run here in 2002 but took 3.49 per cent in 1997 and 4.28 per cent in 1992. Most pundits expect Gargan, who has been involved in a campaign against wind farm pylons near Bantry, to at least double this vote and he could take up to 10 per cent of first preferences.
The Greens are expected to outpoll Sinn Féin and then get a good transfer from Ó Suilleabháin, although some of his vote may stay local and go to fellow Clonakilty candidate O'Sullivan.
While it looks like Labour's Michael McCarthy from Dunmanway, who polled 9.13 per cent in 2002, will ultimately benefit most from Green transfers, he needs to be ahead of O'Sullivan or Sheehan following these transfers to avoid elimination and stay in contention.
O'Sullivan's supporters believe he needs to double his 2002 vote of 3,609 to more than 7,000 to be in with a real chance but Fine Gael and others believe he may lose 1,500-2,000 of his independent vote as a result of joining Fianna Fáil and 7,000 votes may be beyond him.
It makes for an intriguing fight for the last seat and while O'Sullivan cannot be discounted, he could face a struggle for transfers, leaving Sheehan fancied to win the seat.
McCarthy could be a dark horse, particularly if he was to outlast O'Sullivan and get a good transfer.
Verdict
FF - 1, FG - 2
FG gain from FF
