Future of agreement comes down finally to Trimble v. Donaldson

Just over 48 hours to go to the Ulster Unionist Council (UUC) meeting and the plot of this explosive drama about Ulster Unionist…

Just over 48 hours to go to the Ulster Unionist Council (UUC) meeting and the plot of this explosive drama about Ulster Unionist feuding thickens.

Earlier this week, as a London source put it, David Trimble did not "have a script" to deliver to the council on Saturday. Now he has. The denouement, though, remains uncertain.

Most significantly, the IRA has promised to deliver. Tony Blair is arriving in Northern Ireland today to argue that there is no third way. It's either the Belfast Agreement or political meltdown and perhaps worse.

Mr Trimble has won concessions on flags; he can also argue that the RUC name will be in the "title deeds" of the new force.

READ MORE

Equally, the "No" side is in combative mood. Jeffrey Donaldson, backed up by anti-agreement heavyweights such as Lord Molyneaux, William Ross and Martin Smyth, has written to the council's 860 delegates. They are proposing, according to unionist sources, that the party's Assembly ministers withdraw from the executive at the end of November if there is no IRA decommissioning.

Mr Donaldson says this is about decommissioning, not about a leadership challenge. There is probably some truth in this because, as both wings of the party ask - who would want to take control of the UUP at this divisive and troubled time?

But still, when all is pared to the bone, this is Trimble versus Donaldson, because they are the respective figureheads for "Yes" and "No" Ulster Unionism.

Last night Mr Donaldson was dismissive of the IRA statement that it would again open up its arms dumps to the independent inspectors Cyril Ramaphosa and Martti Ahtisaari, and that it would re-engage with the decommissioning body.

He accentuated the negative. Another inspection, resumed dialogue with the commission, yes, but when, and under what conditions? "When the IRA gains even more concessions," was Mr Donaldson's answer. While the IRA complains about the British government allegedly breaking its commitments, it nonetheless unconditionally says there will be a further arms inspection, although it does not specify when.

It also promises to resume contact with the commission when - and here there is some rather cryptic conditionality - it is "satisfied that the peace process will be advanced by these discussions".

Of equal importance, the IRA, notwithstanding the continuing criticism from republican dissidents, reaffirms its commitment to the peace process.

Patten and demilitarisation obviously are the bugbears for republicans. Mr Mandelson says the British government is honouring its pledges on scaling down the security presence, and on Patten, the British and Irish governments are in detailed talks on beefing up the powers of the proposed Policing Board and the Oversight Commissioner.

If the issue of greater police accountability to the public is solved, nationalists just might be able to tolerate the RUC name in the "title deeds" of the new force, but not in the working title, with the other emotive issues of badge and cap being long-fingered.

Mr Blair today will tell Northern Ireland and by extension the UUC delegates, that the future well-being of the North depends on the survival of Mr Trimble and the Belfast Agreement.

Mr Trimble has a package to present. He will contend that the storyline is changing in unionism's favour: pointing to the IRA statement; the British order that flags must fly over government buildings including those housing Sinn Fein ministries; the RUC name somewhere in the legislation establishing the new force; the apparent shaky settlement of the loyalist feud; and at least some action in the South against the "Real IRA".

Perhaps more importantly, he will argue that if delegates adopt the Donaldson line there will never be decommissioning. At least with Mr Trimble's strategy, IRA arms could be put beyond use and Northern Ireland will have a devolved government.

A concession too far, Mr Donaldson and his friends will warn.

How this drama will conclude is still in the balance, but at least Mr Trimble's position has improved. In the meantime the two governments and "Yes" politicians will be praying that Mr Trimble does not impose deadlines on decommissioning that could scupper any hopes of a favourable conclusion to this long-running serial of Ulster Unionist infighting.