German labour reforms risk pushing the unadjusted jobless total over the five million mark for the first time since World War Two due to changes in the way the number is calculated.
When the labour-market reforms come into effect in January, as many as 300,000 Germans who previously received social benefit could be added to jobless rolls, according to an estimate by Federal Labour Office board member Mr Heinrich Alt.
Excluding the effect of the labour reforms, analysts already expected Germany's jobless total, not adjusted for seasonal swings, to rise to 4.8 million in February.
However, economists at Dresdner Bank said any rise in the unadjusted total to over five million would be largely a statistical effect and not necessarily represent a serious deterioration in the labour market.
The statistical uncertainty is likely to increase next year because Germany plans from February 2005 at the latest to begin publishing separate labour market data that conform with International Labour Organisation (ILO) standards for the first time.
The ILO-definition data will be gleaned from a monthly survey of 30,000 Germans conducted by the Federal Statistics Office and could point to a lower unemployment total than the current survey as even those who work for only one hour per week are excluded from the jobless rolls.
The planned cuts in jobless benefits and stricter means testing represent the final and most radical plank of German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's overhaul of jobless benefit and the labour market.