Obesity levels add considerable weight to food companies' share prices

Spiralling obesity rates can pose both a risk and an opportunity for companies and already the share prices of some food production…

Spiralling obesity rates can pose both a risk and an opportunity for companies and already the share prices of some food production groups are rising due to their healthy eating options, according to analysts

Obesity might be bad news for the economy, but it could help investors pile on pounds of a different variety, investment managers say.

Bad diets and inactivity are continuing to push up obesity rates around the world.

Analysts say the epidemic has huge implications for firms in the food production and retailing, healthcare and leisure sectors.

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Norwich Union's socially responsible investment team, based at Morley Fund Management, believes the market has underestimated the impact of obesity on company share prices.

"Obesity is a key theme for Norwich Union's Sustainable Future funds," says Peter Michaelis, who manages two Norwich Union funds.

"We see this as an investment issue because it can affect companies' long-term profitability.

"Rising trends in obesity pose both a risk and opportunity for companies and it's important to understand to what extent companies are exposed to this and how they are managing it."

The number of overweight people in the world overtook the number of malnourished for the first time in 2006, according to Prof Barry Popkin, director of the department of nutrition at the University of North Carolina.

In the Republic it is estimated that obesity and related illnesses cost around €500 million per annum to treat.

In Britain, it costs as much as £7.4 billion a year to deal with obesity.

A study published last month in the British Medical Journal warned that dealing with obesity could bankrupt the National Health Service.

Once seen as a quintessentially Western phenomenon, obesity is also fast becoming a major health problem in rapidly developing countries, such as India and fellow Asian giant China, where fatter wallets are changing lifestyles.

But savvy investors could reap the rewards of the "Jamie Oliver effect", says Morley analyst Harriet Parker.

Oliver kick-started a debate on the quality of food served to children in Britain with his television documentaries on school dinners.

Food companies and retailers that produce high-quality food and healthy lifestyle ranges will enjoy an increase in demand for their products, says Parker.

Conversely, firms that produce poor-quality food with high sugar, salt and fat content risk losing market share as consumers switch to healthier options, she says.

Healthcare companies that produce treatments for obesity-related illnesses - diabetes, strokes, heart disease and joint replacements - are also likely to fare well as the number of sufferers soars.

Dialysis products and services firms DaVita of the US and Fresenius, of Germany, as well as British medical device manufacturer Smith & Nephew, are among those experiencing a surge in demand, says Parker.

Five-a-side outdoor football centre operator Goals is also enjoying a rise in share price and Danone, the French functional foods business known for its "friendly bacteria" products, has also seen its sales and share prices rally.

"The food industry has often been blamed as the cause [ of obesity], but there are many companies benefiting from the way the government and consumers are beginning to think about it," Parker says.

"For example, the Marks & Spencer 'eat well' range is part of the reason it's done so well."

In the year to mid-December last, Goals' share price rose 74 per cent on a total return basis, Marks & Spencer was up 50 per cent, Fresenius increased 46 per cent and Danone 36 per cent.

In contrast, McDonald's climbed just 28 per cent - helped in part by the acquisition of significant stakes in companies that emphasise features such as freshness of ingredients and whose customers may pay a premium for healthier eating, such as Britain's Pret à Manger.

But the formula does not always ring true - Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, for example, has enjoyed a near 70 per cent surge in its share price in the past 12 months.

However, Parker believes the sea-change in eating habits evident in the Western world will soon spread to other parts of the globe.

"People are still eating Krispy Kreme doughnuts, but over time we could well see a reduction in sales," he says. "Obesity is an issue that's not going to go away. Healthy eating is becoming mass-market."