Heat on Sinn Fein as never before as agreement review stumbles on

Paisley speaks of need for form of devolution that excludes SF, writes Frank Millar , London Editor.

Paisley speaks of need for form of devolution that excludes SF, writes Frank Millar, London Editor.

The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, famously foresaw "a mess" on the other side of November's Stormont Assembly election. Nobody in London, Dublin or Belfast would deny that just about describes the state of the formal review of the Belfast Agreement.

"We'll be lucky if we can stagger through to Easter," said one Whitehall source last night. Indeed the relief was palpable in Whitehall and elsewhere that the two governments might be permitted to stagger through next week - courtesy of the DUP's determination not to "follow" David Trimble's Ulster Unionists in a mass walkout come Monday.

Given the poisoned state of unionist politics, the DUP inevitably ridiculed Mr Trimble's threat to bring the current process to an end as an attempt to flex political muscle much reduced by electoral defeat. Others, too, may detect an attempt to simply reposition the diminished and divided UUP to the right of its DUP rivals.

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This would be unfair (if not without some measure of truth). Mr Trimble has behaved similarly when faced with unbearable unionist pressures resulting from breaches of paramilitary ceasefires. He forced the suspension of Sinn Féin and the UDA's political representatives during the 1997-1998 talks and, most crucially, the suspension of the Assembly itself in October 2002.

Against that, there will be a resonance in the unionist heartlands for Dr Paisley's charge that the UUP entered government with Sinn Féin three times while the IRA continued its range of activities inconsistent with a commitment to exclusively peaceful and democratic means.

Nor will there be much comfort for the UUP in adopting the harder-line position, affecting to gloat as the DUP plays the leadership role and adopts a position more congenial to the British government. For at the heart of the DUP leadership's decision to continue talking to the two governments, and the other "legitimate" parties, lies a shared, if unspoken, understanding with Downing Street that the heat is on Sinn Féin as never before, following the IRA's alleged abduction of republican dissident Bobby Tohill.

It should also be grasped that the determination to maintain the pressure on the republican movement also defines the limits of the comfort zone afforded the two governments by the DUP's immediate disposition.

For Dr Paisley last night spoke of the need for "sanctions" and a form of devolution "which can exclude Sinn Féin/IRA". DUP deputy leader Mr Peter Robinson, meanwhile, said Mr Ahern's suggestion there could be no devolved government without Sinn Féin was "not acceptable". On the face of it, then, the DUP has not abandoned all hope that the SDLP might reach breaking point and enter a voluntary coalition without the larger republican party.

Sinn Féin politicians are not alone in suspecting the British government could be tempted down this path if the SDLP would show a willingness. London, the DUP (and some Ulster Unionists) were certainly encouraged by signs from last weekend's SDLP conference, including outgoing chairman Alex Attwood's assertion that the alleged abduction was the straw to break the camel's back. More crucially, they have been encouraged by Minister for Justice Mr McDowell's relentless attacks on the republican movement and the "vomit-making hypocrisy" of the Sinn Féin leadership.

Yet the suspicion of an emerging anti-Sinn Féin consensus was checked on Tuesday night when the Taoiseach emphasised the quality of the IRA ceasefire, the need to respect Sinn Féin's mandate, and the transitional nature of the situation.

Faced with prolonged political deadlock, however, it is Mr Ahern who might find himself under greatest pressure to decide and define just how long the republican transition can last.