Dissident republican paramilitary groups remain highly active and dangerous but are still politically "marginal", according to the latest report of the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC).
The IMC said in its previous report, its 22nd, that the dissident threat was at its highest level since the monitoring body first met in late 2003 and that threat had not diminished in the current six-month period under review to February this year.
IMC member Joe Brosnan said dissidents were highly dangerous with the Real IRA responsible for most of the dissident violence. It killed one of its own members, Kieran Doherty in Derry in February, alleging that he was involved in drugs dealing - a claim rejected by his family - and was particularly focused on attacking members of the PSNI.
"The range and nature of RIRA's activities were by any yardstick a very serious matter," according to the IMC. "It constituted much the most serious threat."
Over the six months under review the Real IRA, which murdered two British soldiers in March last year in Antrim, carried out 16 attacks against the PSNI, its premises and those associated with the police.
Since then, although not covered in the report, the Real IRA was also active, most notably carrying out a car bomb attack close to MI5's HQ in Holywood, Co Down in April.
The IMC said the Real IRA was in a state of "heightened activity", was determined to kill, and was committed to "undermining the peace process". It was also involved in serious crime.
"However, it is important to point out that this is no way the reappearance of something comparable to the Provisional IRA's campaign of the 70s, 80s, and early 90s," said Mr Brosnan.
"Operationally, RIRA does not have comparable resources in terms of personnel, money, organisation and cohesion, or range of weaponry and expertise, and it has not matched the range and tempo of PIRA's activities."
It was also important neither to over-estimate nor under-estimate the dissident threat, added Mr Brosnan. "While the threat from RIRA is dangerously lethal it is also politically marginal."
The IMC said that the Continuity IRA, which murdered PSNI Constable Stephen Carroll in Craigavon, Co Armagh in March last year, also remained a "major threat", although it is not as active as the Real IRA. It is continuing to recruit and train members and was responsible for a number of attacks on drug-dealers and others engaged in anti-social activity, it said.
"It was bent on improving its terrorist capability through recruitment, training and the acquisition of weapons. It undertook a number of shootings and other violent incidents, instigated public disorder and its members remained heavily engaged in a wide range of serious crime, some of it involving violence," the IMC reported.
The IMC also referred to some reports suggesting that a considerable number of former Provisional IRA members were working with and providing bomb-making and other expertise to the dissidents. "On assistance from former republican terrorists the issue is not a drift of significant numbers of people, which we do not believe has happened, but the provision of developed skills by a few people."
The IMC was satisfied that the UDA and the UVF was honouring its commitments to end paramilitary actions. While both groups declared they had decommissioned the IMC nonetheless expressed suspicions that some members retained some arms.
The commission noted that the INLA had decommissioned all its weapons and explosives in December 2009. While describing this as a “major step forward”, it said there is no evidence of a reduction in the involvement of INLA members in non-terrorist criminal activity. “Although the organisation may take the view that this does not amount to an armed struggle, it is illegal paramilitary activity which it is our responsibility to monitor."
The Provisional IRA remains committed to peace and has not been involved in terrorism, the IMC said. Its leaders have consistently taken a stance against terrorism and the involvement of members in crime. “We remain of the view we expressed six months ago and previously: that PIRA has maintained its political course in the period under review and that it will continue to do so,” the report said.
Minister for Justice Dermot Ahern said the findings of the report show there remains “a small number of individuals who refuse to heed the democratically expressed wishes of their fellow Irishmen and women”.
He said these “thugs” had failed in their efforts to stop the Belfast Agreement and derail the devolution of policing and justice powers to Stormont. “Ultimately their tactics of violence and destruction will fail full stop,” he said.
Northern Ireland secretary Owen Paterson said the threat posed by dissident republicans is not comparable to that from the Provisional IRA in the past, “not least because of community support for the political process”.
He said the recent general election showed that there is "overwhelming" support for parties who support peace.
"I agree that recent significant acts of decommissioning by both loyalist and republican paramilitaries mark a sea change in paramilitary activity," Mr Paterson said. "Northern Ireland still faces serious paramilitary challenges, but the decision by many to eschew violence, is a hugely important signal of change."
In terms of loyalists, the IMC report said there was no evidence that the main paramilitary groups were engaged in terrorist activity. However, it said some loyalist groups remained involved in crime, particularly the UVF.
“Of the paramilitary-style assaults during the period that can be attributed to a particular loyalist group, the largest number were committed by UVF members,” it said.
It said dissident loyalist groups such as the Orange Volunteers and the Real UFF were established in response to the activities of dissident republicans. While they have carried out some acts of violence, they have generally focused on sectarian hate crime and do not have widespread support.
