IRA finally may be forced to move on arms

Ian Knox's cartoon in yesterday's Irish News depicts Tony Blair at the British Labour conference in fervent verbal flow about…

Ian Knox's cartoon in yesterday's Irish News depicts Tony Blair at the British Labour conference in fervent verbal flow about his new world order.

In the wings we see the Northern Secretary, John Reid, coughing a cautioning "Ahem!" Indeed. For those in the South not totally familiar with Northern clichΘs it should be known that the political process is now called the Groundhog Day process. Another week, another return to the same old crisis, regardless of what is happening in the rest of the world.

Mr David Trimble met Mr Blair yesterday to try to devise plans for a "soft landing" for the process next week when, as seems certain, the five UUP and DUP ministers pull out of the Executive, effectively bringing down the Northern government.

The UUP/DUP motions to exclude Martin McGuinness and Bairbre de Br·n from the Executive in the absence of IRA decommissioning will fail because it will not have the support of the SDLP.

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Soft landing is probably a shorthand plea to Mr Blair not to call new Assembly elections. So the main option may be an indefinite suspension of the Assembly, a review of the Belfast Agreement, and a return to direct rule from London.

Timely action by the IRA could prevent collapse but whether the IRA will move, or whether it will move sufficiently speedily to avoid meltdown, remains problematic.

There were positive but qualified soundings from Mr Gerry Adams and Mr McGuinness at the Sinn Fein Ardfheis at the weekend, but nothing concrete. Many unionists were disposed to dismiss their remarks as "just the usual republican rhetoric".

Yet a considerable body of republican opinion appeared to be coming to terms with the fact that strategically the best way of realising its political ambitions rests with the IRA Army Council.

If the IRA does not come to the rescue and the institutions of the agreement are put on ice, republicans will, of course, say it's all the fault of David Trimble and the British government. One senses, though, that they are not so confident this time of winning the propaganda battle.

For a start, Dublin, London, Washington and the Yes parties either publicly or privately are absolutely at one in insisting that without an IRA move on arms suspension is inevitable. Secondly, the world has changed for Sinn FΘin and the IRA since the three republicans were arrested in Colombia and since the atrocities in the US.

The strongest hint that the IRA is seriously addressing the arms issue came from a republican close to the Adams/McGuinness camp who confided that the IRA may be about to "do something" on weapons.

That's fairly non-specific but it gelled with a broad range of current republican opinion that there is no better time than now to take the initiative on weapons. "It's war or politics. But the war is over, and everybody knows the war is over. It's just a question of indicating that that is the case, and that may necessitate some weapons being put beyond use," said one senior republican.

Another former IRA prisoner said "it's time" for a gesture on arms, although he felt it should be a "one-day wonder". Another leading Sinn FΘin figure said he was surprised by how many ex-prisoners were convinced that the "logical" way forward was through the ballot box alone.

Dublin and London are being very cautious about the prospects of an IRA move. US sources also played down the significance of the US ambassador in Dublin, Mr Richard Egan, attending and engaging in a photocall with Mr Adams at the ardfheis.

It was inevitable, though, that his appearance at such a sensitive event prompted speculation that Mr Egan was illustrating that despite Colombia Sinn FΘin could mend its fences with Washington but that the payback was the IRA getting rid of weapons.

It's still uncertain whether the IRA will move. It's more uncertain whether it will move in the face of what it would describe as unionist ultimatums.

What is certain, however, is that there is a growing awareness among republicans at all levels that the only way to stabilise the agreement and bolster Sinn FΘin's electoral prospects rests with the IRA.