Every part of the country is experiencing increases in Covid-19, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) said on Wednesday night.
Prof Philip Nolan, chair of the Irish epidemiological modelling group, said there was "no county where the incidence is not of concern". He said the team is "seeing very high incidence" among younger people, but also cautioned that there is significant growth among older people. At the beginning of September, the incidence in older people was 10-15 cases per 100,000 above 65, now it is about 30 cases.
Prof Nolan said the reproduction number, which needs to be below 1 to suppress the disease, is likely at about 1.2. However, he said this is flattered by Dublin’s performance. He said the number in the capital is likely around one, and in the rest of the country is about 1.5.
“The disease is spreading very rapidly, particularly outside Dublin.”
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Even in the capital, he sounded a note of caution over the idea that the virus was stabilising.
“We’ve been fooled by temporary reductions in case numbers in Dublin in the past,” he said.
If the R number remains at a level of 1.2 to 1.4, Nphet expects to see 1,100-1,500 cases per day by the end of the first week in November, and 350-450 people in hospital by that date.
Dr Tony Holohan, the chief medical officer, said there was still an opportunity to contain the spread of the virus if people acted collectively and individually.
“It is clear that as a country, we haven’t been doing as well in keeping up those standards of behaviour which is part of the reason we find ourselves in the challenge that we have,” he said.
‘Save Christmas’
“The real concern over the summer has been the quantum of socialisation, and all of the different ways that happens and how much that has driven the opportunities for the virus to spread, and the virus has taken those opportunities,” he said.
He said Christmas would be “a challenging time”, but that the levels of virus leading into that period would be vital.
“It matters greatly if you go into Christmas at 50 cases a day, 500 cases a day, or 1,000 cases a day,” he said, taking for example that the R number could be 2.5 at that time due to socialising.
“We can still save Christmas, I presume, if we do the right thing for the next three weeks,” Prof Nolan said.
With some calling for restrictions on the sale of alcohol, Dr Holohan said: “There’s no question alcohol has played a very important part in helping to create the kind of social circumstances this virus thrives on. This virus loves alcohol.”
