The nature of crises and controversies under the confidence-and-supply agreement now forms something of a pattern.
A few weeks of hue and cry over a certain issue – overspending on the national children’s hospital being the latest example – leads to an individual minister coming under acute political pressure.
Political chatter intensifies about what position Fianna Fáil will take, and whether it will demand a resignation as the price of continuing to keep the Government in office.
Fianna Fáil figures spend days being ambiguous on the issue before Micheál Martin publicly points out the obvious: that, notwithstanding the grave and serious concern of his party, it will not breach its confidence-and-supply agreement, which forbids it from tabling or supporting motions of no confidence in ministers or the Government.
The obvious exception to this was the December 2017 controversy that led to the resignation of then tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald, but the current travails of Simon Harris carry echoes instead of how Fianna Fáil handled a previous motion of no confidence in Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy.
Normal political circumstances, in which the government of the day commanded a Dáil majority, would allow the largest opposition party table such a motion in any minister. Although they almost always fail, such motions allow a crisis reach a crescendo: the government closes ranks and the opposition uses Dáil time to air its many grievances.
Confidence and supply – which sees Fianna Fáil underpin the minority Fine Gael-led Government by abstaining on budgetary and confidence votes – has suspended normal political practice in Leinster House.
Motions of no confidence, usually pushed by Sinn Féin, are now used as a method of attacking Fianna Fáil as well as the Government.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has repeatedly made her views on confidence and supply as a governing mechanism clear, describing it as a “political con job”.
She will not entertain being party to a similar arrangement after the next election. “You either take the plunge and you go into government or you don’t,” she said.
Senior Sinn Féin figures say confidence and supply has the effect of neutralising politics and does not allow for strong opposition in parliament.
When assessing their own position in this current Dáil, Sinn Féin maintains it is the “real opposition” to the Government, claiming Fianna Fáil has abandoned any claim to the be called an opposition at all.
The momentum of the national children’s hospital controversy should, if the normal rules of politics applied, lead to a motion of no confidence from the main opposition party.
Sinn Féin sees itself in that role now – if not in terms of Dáil seats, then in spirit – and has zeroed in on the roughly 40 per cent of the electorate who, according to opinion polls, will not support either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil at the next election.
Any motion against Harris will fail, but will be used by Sinn Féin to further underline its distinction from both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for its target audience.