How are the negotiations on government formation going?
At this point we can forget any combination having a majority. It's not going to happen. Fine Gael has 50 seats. Michael Lowry has pledged his support. There's a Fianna Fáil Ceann Comhairle. That leaves Enda Kenny 28 short. His party is never going to forge a deal with Sinn Féin, so to get an overall majority Fine Gael would have to go into coalition with Fianna Fáil. That's not going to happen, either.
So could Fianna Fáil become the main government party?
For Fianna Fáil the target is even more distant. The party elected 44 TDs, but one of them, Seán Ó Fearghail, became the Ceann Comhhairle. It needs the support of another 35 deputies to win a majority. Even if it bit the bullet and went in with Sinn Féin's 23 deputies, they would still be 11 short.
So we're definitely looking at a minority government?
This is the only working possibility at this moment. It depends on one factor. And that is for the other big political bloc to abstain in the event of a vote that could bring down the government. Michael Lowry's (unasked for) support gives Fine Gael 51 seats. If Fianna Fáil abstained it would leave 114 "active" votes in the chamber. Fine Gael would need seven to make that up. That is attainable.
And who could end up being Fine Gael's partners?
Efforts are under way to forge a deal with the five rural TDs led by Denis Naughten or some or all of the Independent Alliance. Others in play are the Healy-Rae brothers, Katherine Zappone and Maureen O'Sullivan, as well as the two Green Party TDs, and perhaps (although doubtfully) the Social Democrats. It is more difficult for Fianna Fáíl. If the 50 Fine Gael TDs abstained (and perhaps Lowry too) it would mean an active Dáil of 106 deputies. Fianna Fáíl would need the support of 10 deputies, and more in reality, to ensure the government would not fall on a single defection. That looks too hard.
How would it work?
A deal would be done with the Independents; then the other bloc would be approached for an agreement on non-opposition on budgets, confidence votes and votes that might bring down the government. It would probably involve some kind of deal on flashpoint issues such as Irish Water or housing. Some of the big issues, like budgetary matters, might be thrashed through for months in committee. For everything else support would be forthcoming on a case-by-case basis. It sounds tottery, but it can work. For a while, anyway: a year or 18 months.
Why has this political uncertainty arisen?
A long time ago it was far simpler. The choice was a Fianna Fáil government or some kind of combination led by Fine Gael. Two factors have put paid to that. The first is a more complex, urbanised society. With each generation the connection becomes more tenuous. The combined support for the two big parties has slipped by 20 points in a generation and now stands at more than half the electorate. That might vary upwards periodically, but there is a long-term gradual decline. The second factor is our complicated voting system. If we had a first-past-the-post system the two big parties would likely have the lion's share of seats, with all others sharing perhaps the last 30. Proportional representation gives a fairer spread but does not lend itself to decisive results.
Will we ever have a one-party government?
What was portrayed as a "temporary little arrangement" 27 years ago has become a permanent reality. Attaining the supposedly magical number of 79 – half the overall number of 158 TDs – might not be possible now or ever.
