CONSERVATIVE BORIS Johnson last night appeared to be on course for a narrow victory over Labour’s Ken Livingstone in what turned out to be a tighter battle than predicted for the London mayoralty.
Last minute polls before Thursday’s election had foreseen a victory margin of between three to six percentage points, but the outcome narrowed as the day went on. In the end, Mr Livingstone’s failure to match Labour’s performance in the Assembly elections ended his dream of becoming mayor for a third time.
Up to 100,000 voters across the city who voted Labour in the assembly election voted for the Conservative in the mayoralty ballot, while a further 100,000 of them did not vote in the race at all.
Mr Johnson’s outgoing deputy mayor, Richard Barnes, who was criticised this year for making jokes about Irish builders, has lost his place in the assembly.
Throughout the day, the Conservatives, who were confident of a clear victory in the beginning, became more nervous as the hours passed.
In the initial euphoria, some within the Conservatives’ ranks declared that Mr Johnson was now the leading contender to replace prime minister David Cameron. Speaking before his election, Mr Johnson, who would need to return to the House of Commons before having any chance of replacing Mr Cameron, insisted that he would serve a full term at City Hall.
“If I am fortunate enough to win I’ll need four years to deliver what I’ve promised. And having put trust at the heart of this election, I would serve out that term in full,” he said.
Blaming Labour’s choice of candidate for the party’s failure, Tony Travers of the London School of Economics said: “At a time when the Conservatives’ popularity is so low, another candidate certainly would have won.”
In the end, the issue was decided by second-preference votes. Under voting rules, all but the top mayoral candidates are eliminated if no one reaches 50 per cent.
Independent candidate Siobhán Benita, who impressed during the campaign even if she struggled to get media coverage, has proven to be one of the major winners in the campaign.
Early analysis suggested the majority of her support came from people who might otherwise have voted Labour: “She nibbled at Ken’s vote,” said Mr Travers.
Mr Livingstone did better than Mr Johnson in the race for second preferences, but not by enough to overturn his rival’s narrow-than-expected first preference lead.
